[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST Sun Jan 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front over the W Atlantic is producing northwest gale-
force winds mainly N of 29N between 65W-72W. Seas range between
11-18 ft. Winds are forecast to be below gale this evening 05/1800
UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
website www.hurricanes.gov for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 00N00W to 00N03W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 04N20W to 03N37W to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N
between 17W-28W, and from 01N-10N between 30W-42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 05/1500 UTC a 1032 mb high is centered over S Alabama near
31N86W producing mostly fair weather. 5-15 kt anticyclonic winds
are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the SE Gulf.
Broken to overcast low clouds with scattered showers are over the
SW Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 17N-21N between 94W-97W.

In the upper levels, WSW winds are over the Gulf with strong
subsidence.

Surface winds across the eastern Gulf will diminish tonight into
Mon as high pressure builds over the northern waters. Another cold
front will cross the area Tue and Tue night, then stall and
weaken over the central Gulf Wed into Wed night. Fresh to strong
return flow will prevail across the region Thu and Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 05/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Caribbean Sea from
E Cuba near 22N77W to 19N93W to central Honduras near 14N87W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. 20-25 N winds
are N of the front. A surface trough is over the SE Caribbean
from 16N65W to 10N67W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the
trough. Radar imagery also shows scattered showers over Puerto
Rico. 10-25 tradewinds are over the central and eastern Caribbean
Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia.

A large upper level high is centered over Haiti near 19N72W.
Strong subsidence is over the Caribbean and Central America.

The cold front over the NW Caribbean will reach from E Cuba to
E Honduras tonight, then stall and weaken Mon and Mon night.
Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front north of
the area by mid week. This will result in strengthening trade
winds across the Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters, with
near gale force winds expected near the coast of Colombia Thu
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic.

As of 05/1500 UTC a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W
to E Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. A large surface trough is over the central Atlantic from
31N37W to 23N45W to 13N48W.

Of note is the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the E Atlantic near 20N40W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of
the center.

The western Atlantic cold front will reach from just east of
Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight, then stall and weaken from
24N65W to near Hispaniola on Mon. Gale force winds and very large
seas will persist through this afternoon across the northern
waters behind the front before starting the decrease. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. Another cold front
will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue and shift across the
waters Tue night through Wed night. Expect strong winds and
building seas Thu and Thu night as strong high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic.

$$
Formosa
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