[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050556
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1256 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

...Western Atlantic Gale Warning...

A cold front has moved off the NE Florida coast this evening
bringing north to northwest gale-force winds mainly N of 28N
between 66W-80W. Expect seas in this area to range between
15-18 ft. These winds will continue through Sunday afternoon.
See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through 03N09W to 02N14W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 03N32W to 05S48W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is 280 nm south of the monsoon
trough between 09W-03W, and a cluster of scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N-04N
between 35W-42W. Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are
between 13W-26W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from south central Florida near 26N81W to
NW Cuba near 22N84W, then continues southwest into the NW
Caribbean Sea. The tail end of the reinforcing cold front is
noted 180 nm behind the main front and extends into the Gulf
near 29N83W. Ridge is in place across the west central Gulf
with a 1029 mb high pressure centered near 24N95W. Radar imagery
shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm E of the front.
No significant convection is noted with the secondary front.

A cold front extending from near Naples Florida to the western
tip of Cuba will exit the basin overnight. Strong NW to N winds
and 8 to 10 ft seas are expected W of the front tonight. Winds and
seas will diminish Sun and Mon as high pres builds over the area.
Another cold front will cross the northern Gulf Tue and Tue
night, then stall and weaken over the central Gulf Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is making its way into the NW Caribbean Sea tonight
extending from the western Atlantic into NW Cuba from 21N84W to
the Gulf of Honduras near 15N88W. A surface trough ahead of the
front is seen from 28N77W to 23N82W. Scattered showers are within
180 nm on either sides of the trough. A second trough is present
in the eastern Caribbean from 18N63W to 11N64W, with scattered
showers and tstorms in the vicinity of the trough. Recent ASCAT
data indicates moderate to fresh easterly trades prevailing across
central and eastern Caribbean while fresh to strong NW winds
accompany the front in the western Caribbean. Light to gentle
winds are noted from 14N south to the coast of Venezuela. North of
Colombia, ASCAT shows an area of fresh winds from 13N- 10N
between 73W-77W.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to locally strong
trade winds off Colombia tonight. A cold front will move through
the Yucatan Channel tonight, bringing fresh to strong N winds to
the NW Caribbean. The front will extend from eastern Cuba to the
coast of Honduras Sun, then weaken and dissipate by Mon night. NE
winds will strengthen off the coast of Colombia and through the
Windward Passage Wed and Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect for the eastern Atlantic.

A 1024 mb high pressure dominates the western Atlantic centered
near 29N54W. To the east, a stationary front is gradually
weakening in the central Atlantic near 30N37W to 19N46W.
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front.

High pressure across the western Atlantic will shift E today
ahead of a strong cold front moving E from Florida. The front will
reach from 31N70W to central Cuba near 22N79W Sun morning, and
from 28N65W to eastern Cuba Sun night, then stall and weaken from
23N65W to Hispaniola Mon. Gale force winds are expected tonight
and Sun N of 28N following the front. A brief period of winds to
gale force will precede the front N of 29N and E of 77W. High
pressure will build across the area Mon and Tue

$$
MMT
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