[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
634 PM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through tonight across
northern Honduras, in association with strong northerly onshore
flow behind a slowly-moving cold front. Please monitor the
latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological
service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 06N10W to 02N23W. The ITCZ begins from 02N23W to 02N40W to
the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen north of the monsoon trough from 02N-05N between 11W-22W.
Along the ITCZ, scattered showers are present extend about 100 to
180 nm on either side of the boundary.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1029 mb
high pressure centered near 28N89W. With this,a broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans across the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT data
depicts fresh to strong northerly wind over the eastern Gulf
mainly east of 85W, while moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf through midweek
before retreating eastward. This will enable to next cold front to
move into the NW Gulf on Wed. The front will shift across the
Gulf, moving SE of the area by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A slowly-moving cold front extends across the west-central portion
of the basin from 18N74W to 13N83W. Cloudiness and scattered
showers are noted along and west of the front. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong northerly winds west of the front, while
moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the remainder of the
basin.

The cold front will stall and dissipate from the Dominican
Republic to Costa Rica Sun. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will
prevail NW of the front through Sun, including the Windward
Passage. Strong winds will continue to pulse along the coast of
Colombia through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slowly-moving cold front extends from 31N59W to 20N71W and
continues sw across the Caribbean. To the west, a reinforcing
frontal boundary extends from 31N71W to 27N77W. Scatterometer
data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds mainly west of the
reinforcing front, while moderate to fresh northerly winds are
noted west of the cold front near 60W. Surface ridge prevails
across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high
centered near 31N39W. A pair of surface troughs were analyzed
from 29N33W to 21N38W, and from 19N30W to 12N37W. Scattered
showers are noted along the second trough.

The cold front will stall from 22N59W to Puerto Rico Sun night,
then dissipate by Tue. High pressure in the wake of the front
will prevail across the region until midweek, when the next cold
front approaches the SE coast of the United States.

$$

ERA
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