[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EST Sat Feb 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night
across northern Honduras, in association with strong northerly
onshore flow behind a slowly-moving cold front. It is possible
that persistent heavy rainfall may lead to flash floods and
mudslides. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local
or national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
03N20W to 01N27W, curving to the Equator along 35W, to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 07N southward, especially along the coast of
Brazil and the Equator along 48W/49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is
to the north of 22N98W 22N90W, beyond the Florida Keys.

A 1029 mb high pressure center is near 26N95W. One ridge extends
from the high center to Florida near 27N82W, and to the Atlantic
Ocean near 26N72W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans
the Gulf of Mexico. of 28/2100 UTC, a 1029 mb high is centered
over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 26N95W.

A weak frontal boundary will move across the NE Gulf of Mexico
tonight. High pressure will prevail across the region,
elsewhere, through Tuesday. The next cold front will move into
the NW Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night. The front will shift
rapidly across the Gulf on Wednesday. Gale-force wind conditions
are possible, to the west of the front, off the coast of
Veracruz and Tampico, in Mexico, on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to 23N70W,
across the Turks Islands, through the Windward Passage, across
Jamaica, into NE Nicaragua. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are to the west of
the line that runs from SE Hispaniola to the coast of Panama
along 80W.

Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and
possible rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea from 14N to 23N between 52W and 68W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 29/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.04 in
Guadeloupe.

The current cold front will continue to move eastward. The front
will stall and dissipate from Hispaniola to Costa Rica this
weekend. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the
front through Sunday, including in the Windward Passage. Fresh
to strong winds are expected near the coast of Colombia each
night through the middle of the upcoming week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center, that is
near 31N64W, to 23N70W, across the Turks Islands, through the
Windward Passage, across Jamaica, into NE Nicaragua.
Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are to the west of the line that runs from
the northern border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic beyond
32N55W. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period
that ended at 29/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC,
are: 0.17 in Bermuda.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N35W. A
trough extends from the cyclonic center to 10N48W. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, from
400 nm to 1000 nm to the SW of the upper level cyclonic center.
A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 20N to 30N. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within
250 nm on either side of 10N38W 19N31W 29N22W.

The current cold front will stall in the far SE part of the
forecast area on Sunday, where it will dissipate through Monday.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front, and prevail
through midweek, when the next cold front approaches the SE
coast of the United States.

$$
mt
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