[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HONDURAS...

Periods of heavy rainfall are expected through Saturday night
across northern Honduras in association with strong northerly
onshore flow behind a slow moving cold front. Persistent heavy
rainfall could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please monitor
the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological
service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N29W to the coast
of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate and embedded isolated
strong convection is occurring from the equator to 4N between 25W
and 30W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

Generally fair weather exists across the Gulf of Mexico today
supported by a 1031 mb high pressure system over the northwestern
waters and abundant dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the
atmosphere. Surface winds are mostly out of the northwest or
north, and are strongest (15-20 kt) over the southeastern waters.
Winds are much lighter and variable closer to the high. The
highest seas, up to 7 ft., are over the southeastern waters.

High pressure centered near the Texas coast will shift eastward
through Sun. Winds and seas will continue to diminish across the
area today. A weak frontal boundary will move across the NE Gulf
tonight with fresh NW winds. Southerly return flow will increase
over much of the Gulf early next week. The next cold front will
move into the NW Gulf by Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a strong cold front for this time of year extends
from eastern Cuba to east-central Honduras. Behind the front, the
weather conditions consist of strong northerly winds, cooler
air, and low-level clouds with possible showers. Seas are up to 9
ft. over the northwestern Caribbean waters. East of the front,
conditions are much more tranquil with light to moderate trades
and only patches of low-level clouds. The highest seas and winds
are in the usual location near the coast of Colombia.

The cold front will continue moving east, then stall and
dissipate from Hispaniola to Costa Rica this weekend. Fresh to
strong N to NE winds will prevail NW of the front through Sun,
including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected near the coast of Colombia each night through mid-week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front enters the discussion area near 32N62W and
extends south-southwestward across the southeastern Bahamas to
eastern Cuba. Moderate northwesterly flow and scattered showers
are widespread beind the front. Farther east over the eastern and
central Atlantic, surface ridging dominates the area. There are a
few surface troughs pertubing the ridge, but the only noteworthy
one is over the eastern Atlantic along 32W-33W from 21N to 31N.
This feature and its parent mid- to upper-level low are producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 29N
between 25W and 31W.

The cold front will continue to move eastward across the Atlantic
through Mon night, then stall and weaken Tue. Fresh to strong W
to NW winds and seas to 10 ft are expected in the vicinity of the
frontal boundary through Mon. Winds will pick up again by late
Mon as pressure gradient intensifies across the area.

$$
Cangialosi
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