[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 30N91W 24N98W. Expect N gale-force winds,
and sea heights less than 8 feet, from 26N to 28N between 95W
and 97W. A second and stronger cold front will catch up to the
first front. The two fronts will merge, and form one front, that
is forecast to be along 31N84W 19N98W on Wednesday afternoon.
Expect NW-to-N gale-force to storm-force wind speeds, and sea
heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet will be present from 19N
to 20N between 95W and 96W, and including within 60 nm of
Veracruz in Mexico. Strong gale-force winds, and sea heights
ranging from 12 feet to 17 feet, will be from 18N to 25N between
88W and 96W, including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico and
within 60 nm of Campeche. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...

It is likely that heavy rainfall may affect northwestern and
north central sections of Honduras, from Thursday through
Saturday, behind a strong cold front. It is possible that the
heavy rain in Honduras may lead to significant flash floods and
mudslides. A period of heavy rain is likely, also, from
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, in central Guatemala and
in the southeastern parts of the Mexican state of Veracruz and
in northern Chiapas. Some localized flooding is possible in SE
Mexico and in Guatemala. The greatest threat for flooding is in
northern Honduras. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your
local or national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 05N,
to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W, to 01N37W.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 02N to the
Equator between 34W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere from 06N southward between 16W and
50W. Isolated moderate is to the south of the monsoon trough
between 08W and 15W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening and slowly-moving cold front passes through the
Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and the west
central Gulf. A second and comparatively stronger cold front is
about 220 nm to the west of the slowly-moving cold front. Please
read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, in order to be aware of the
gale-force and storm-force wind conditions that are in the
forecast. Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds
and possible rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs
from the west central coast of Florida, along 27N, to the NW
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

The second and stronger cold front will catch up to and merge
with the slowly-moving and weakening cold front, today. The
combined/merged frontal boundary will race SE, and through and
out of the Gulf of Mexico by late this evening. High pressure
will dive S and settle into the area through the end of the
week. Gale-force winds are developing behind the strong cold
front, off the TX coast. The gale-force winds will envelop most
of the W Gulf of Mexico today. Storm conditions will develop
offshore Veracruz Mexico this afternoon and evening. Gale wind
conditions will prevail in the broader SW Gulf through tonight,
before N winds diminish to strong on Thursday. It is likely that
another cold front may move into the NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday
night or early on Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge is in Central America. It is pushing upper
level westerly wind across the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
possible rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea, nearly
everywhere, except from 84W westward.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 26/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.09 in
Guadeloupe.

High pressure north and east of the Caribbean Sea, in
combination with low pressure in South America, will maintain
strong northeast to east winds pulsing each night through the
weekend off the coast of Colombian. A cold front will move into
the NW Caribbean Sea this evening. The front will move
southeastward, to a position from eastern Cuba to eastern
Honduras by Thursday evening. The front will become stationary,
during the weekend, from Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Fresh to
strong N winds are expected in the wake of this wake of this
front, across the Caribbean Sea, during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slowly-moving cold front passes through 32N44W, to 25N50W, to
20N56W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 120 nm to the SE of the cold front, from 25N
northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible
rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N northward between 40W and 60W.

A surface trough is along 32W/33W from 09N to 28N. The trough
replaces the low pressure center from 18 hours to 24 hours ago.
An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N33W.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is within 700 nm to 800 nm
of the upper level cyclonic center in the S semicircle.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 09N northward
between 30W and 40W.

Strong SW winds are expected NE of the Bahamas today and
tonight, in advance of a cold front that will move off the SE
U.S.A this afternoon. Strong NW wind is expected N of the
Bahamas through Thursday, behind this front. The front will move
E of Bermuda and the Bahamas and into E Cuba by Thursday
evening. The cold front will slow down as it moves E of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and into Hispaniola into the weekend.
It is likely that a reinforcing cold front may bring strong NW
winds to the areas that are to the north of 25N during the
upcoming weekend.

$$
mt
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