[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
638 PM EST Tue Feb 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico
late tonight. Over the NW Gulf off Texas and western Louisiana,
winds of 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt will begin early Wednesday
morning a few hours prior to sunrise. South of 26N in the western
Gulf, sustained winds of gale force will begin around sunrise
Wednesday morning. NW to N winds will increase to storm force Wed
afternoon for the SW Gulf waters offshore of Veracruz Mexico from
19N-20N between 95W-96W, then fall below storm force Wed evening.
Winds will remain gale force over the entire Bay of Campeche
south of 22N on Wednesday night, before diminishing below gale
force around 0600 UTC Thursday. Seas of 12-17 ft are expected for
the entire southwest Gulf of Mexico, except as high as 19 ft
offshore on Veracruz Wed afternoon. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...

Heavy rainfall will likely affect northwestern and north-central
portions of Honduras Thursday through Saturday, behind a strong
cold front. The heavy rain in Honduras could lead to significant
flash flooding and mudslides. A period of heavy rain is also
likely Wednesday afternoon through Thursday in central Guatemala
and over the southeastern portions of the Mexican state of
Veracruz and northern Chiapas. Some localized flooding is possible
over southeast Mexico and Guatemala. However, the greatest threat
for flooding is over northern Honduras. Please monitor the latest
forecasts from your local or national meteorological service.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia from 05N10W
to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm
either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the Gulf. See above.

As of 25/2100 UTC, a weak stationary front extends across the Gulf
of Mexico from Tallahassee Florida to 27N90W to a 1009 mb low
located over south Texas, just SW of Corpus Christi. Scattered
moderate rainshowers cover the Gulf within the area bounded by the
points Tampa Bay Florida to 21N98W to Brownsville Texas to 31N89W
to 31N81W to Tampa Bay. Moderate to fresh S winds are over the
southeastern Gulf, with gentle winds elsewhere.

A strong cold front will blast into the NW and north-central
Gulf tonight into early Wed and overtake the aforementioned
stationary front. The merged cold front will quickly move to the
southeast of the area by Wed night. Storm force winds are expected
over a portion of the SW Gulf on Wed afternoon before diminishing
to strong gale force winds on Wed night. Gale force winds are
expected elsewhere behind the front over the central and western
Gulf waters through Wed night. Seas will build to large values
behind the front resulting in hazardous marine conditions in the
SW Gulf. For the remainder of the Gulf, expect strong to near
gale force northwest winds during this period. Winds and
associated seas will diminish Thu through Fri as high pressure
settles in over the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See section above for description of heavy rainfall event expected
over northern Honduras Thursday through Saturday.

A mid-level ridge prevails over the Caribbean Sea, leading to
subsidence and relatively dry air across the basin. Nothing more
than isolated light showers are over a few areas. Fresh winds are
noted south of Hispaniola, in the Mona Passage, in the Gulf of
Honduras, and off the coast of N Colombia. Moderate wind speeds
are elsewhere across the basin.

Strong NE to E winds will pulse each night through the weekend
off the Colombian coast. A cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean Wed evening, then push southeastward to a position from
eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by Thu evening. The front will
become stationary from Hispaniola to Costa Rica by Sun morning.
Fresh to strong N winds can be expected in the wake of this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate rainshowers and isolated tstorms are located
offshore of northern Florida and Georgia north and west of a line
from Cape Canaveral Florida to 30N77W to 32N76W. This activity is
occurring well to the east of a stationary front that extends
from western South Carolina and western Georgia to Tallahassee
Florida. A 1024 mb high is east of Bermuda near 32N60W. Surface
ridging extends SW from the high to the central Bahamas. Over the
central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N48W to 27N50W to
22N55.5W. A dissipating stationary front continues to the Virgin
Islands. An upper-level trough along 50W from 20N-40N is enhancing
scattered moderate rainshowers along and within 180 nm east of the
cold front, mainly north of 23N and east of 52W. Isolated showers
are elsewhere along the front. Farther E, a surface trough is from
28N29W to 17N33W. An upper-level low in the vicinity of 27N29W is
enhancing scattered thunderstorms from 24.5N-29N between 22W-30W.

Fresh to strong south to southwest winds north of the Bahamas will
shift eastward and diminish some through early Wed in advance of
a cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late
Wed. Behind the front, strong northwest winds will occur Wed
night into Thu north of the Bahamas, when the front will reach a
Bahamas to eastern Cuba line. The front will slow down and become
stationary during the weekend from near 31N60W to Hispaniola. A
reinforcing cold front could bring strong northwest winds to areas
north of 25N this weekend.

$$
Hagen
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