[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1249 PM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico Tues
night into Wednesday. As a result, strong to gale force northerly
winds are forecast for Wednesday 26/1200 UTC. Expect 30 to 40 knt
winds from 20N-26N between 95W-97W with seas around 9 to 13 feet.
Conditions will begin to improve into Thursday. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Liberia from 04N08W to 02N13W.
The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to 00N49W. A cluster of scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen mainly 360 nm offshore from
Liberia from 02S-07N between the coast of Liberia and Sierra Leone
near 08W to 20W. Elsewhere along the ITCZ, scattered showers and
isolated tstorms are present.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb surface ridge passes through Florida, into the Gulf of
Mexico. ASCAT data indicates fresh to strong east to southeast
winds in the SE and the western Gulf. This SE flow is setting up
ahead of a cold front that is moving through central Texas at
this time. The cold front is forecast to move off the Texas Gulf
tonight.

Fresh S flow is expected today ahead of a cold front that will
move off the TX coast this evening. Strong high pressure will
surge S through the Southern Plains and reinforce this cold front
Tue, causing it to accelerate to the SE. The front will continue
SE to stretch from the FL Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche, then
pass SE of the area Wed night. Strong N gales will develop over
the SW Gulf and western Bay of Campeche Wed, then continue over
the waters near Veracruz Wed night. Strong N winds and higher seas
are expected elsewhere behind the front through Thu. High
pressure will settle into the area for the end of the week,
bringing improving conditions.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean across Puerto
Rico, then it begins to weaken in the southern coastal waters
of Hispaniola near 17N72W. Scattered showers are seen in the
tail end of the front. ASCAT data at 24/1340 UTC shows moderate
to fresh NE winds between the frontal boundary and Hispaniola
with broken to overcast clouds, and moderate to fresh south to
the north of Colombia and south of Cuba to 17N. Light easterly
trades are seen over the Eastern and Central Caribbean. There
are some scattered showers streaming across Jamaica and the
Cayman Islands. A surface trough extends from 19N87W to 14N79W.
Showers are in the vicinity of the trough and scatterometer data
shows moderate to fresh winds north of the trough. A second
trough is seen along the Lesser Antilles from 18N60W to 11N62W.
This is enhancing scattered showers over the Lesser Antilles
south of Guadeloupe.

A high pres ridge over the western Atlc will cause strong NE to
E winds to pulse nightly off the Colombian coast through Fri
night. The high will also generate fresh to strong E to NE winds
to the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as over the Windward
Passage until Tue. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Wed
evening, push SE to extend from central Cuba to Honduras by Thu
night, then reach the central Caribbean as it weakens Fri and Sat.
Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 33N54W with a
cold front extending south to 22N59W to PR near 18N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen north of 22N Between 50W-55W. Further
east, a low pressure is near 23N26W with a trough extending to
24N23W to 19N25W. Scattered moderate convection is seen to the
northeast from 25N-28N between 19W-23W. Another trough is seen
south of the Canary Islands near 26N17W to 17N18W.

A slow moving cold front will trudge E across the Virgin Islands
today and tonight, then dissipate Tue. Behind this front, long
period N swell will gradually decay through Tue. Strong S to SW
winds will develop off the N FL coast tonight in advance of the
next cold front. These winds will prevail through Tue evening,
then the front will move off the SE US coast Wed. The cold front
will reach the NW Bahamas by late Wed, then weaken as it continues
SE to the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola by Fri. Strong
W to NW winds are possible behind the front and N of 28N Wed
night.

$$
MMTorres
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