[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border area of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from
02N22W, crossing the Equator along 29W, to the coast of Brazil
near 03S42W. Precipitation: scattered strong within 60 nm to 120
nm of the monsoon trough on the southern side, between 10W and
12W. Widely scattered moderate to strong from 05N southward
between 06W and 11W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
elsewhere to the south of the monsoon trough, between 10W and
20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 150 nm
to the north of the ITCZ between 25W and 33W. Scattered strong
off the coast of Brazil from 01N to 03N between 49W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front is in west Texas, now. The cold front is
forecast to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

Fresh to locally strong S flow will develop in the far western
Gulf of Mexico tonight, as high pressure shifts eastward of the
Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf of
Mexico on Monday night and Tuesday morning. A stronger
reinforcing front will follow Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. The combined front will move southeast of the area by
Wednesday night. Gale-force northwest to north winds will
develop in the waters that are to the south of 25N and to the
west of 94W, on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Fresh to strong
winds are expected elsewhere behind the front, diminishing from
Thursday through Friday night, as high pressure settles into
the NW Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through 23N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
20N65W, to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, to the
southern coastal waters of Haiti near 17N73W. Precipitation:
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are within 150 nm on either side of the front.

A surface trough is along 15N77W 18N83W 19N88W, from 140 nm to
the south of Jamaica, to the eastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are from 15N
northward from 75W westward.

A second surface trough, is in the easternmost part of the
Caribbean Sea, along 60W/62W from 10N to 20N. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 15N southward between 58W and 64W.

Strong northeast to east winds will pulse each night along the
coast of Colombia through Friday night.  from the SW tip of
Haiti to southeastern Nicaragua will dissipate by Tuesday. Fresh
to locally strong winds are expected to the lee of Cuba, the
Dominican Republic, and in and downwind of the Mona Passage,
from tonight through Tuesday, to the NW of the line that runs
from the SW tip of Haiti to southeastern Nicaragua. The next
cold front will move into the far NW Caribbean Sea on Wednesday
night. The front will move across the rest of the NW Caribbean
Sea through Thursday night. The front will move across the
central Caribbean Sea on Friday and Friday night, while
weakening. Fresh to strong north winds will be in the NW
Caribbean Sea, behind the front, through early Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N55W, through 30N55W, to 23N60W,
20N65W, to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, to the
southern coastal waters of Haiti near 17N73W. A 1011 mb low
pressure center is near 32N57W. An occluded front extends from
the 1011 mb low center to a 33N55W triple point. A surface
trough extends from the 1011 mb low pressure center, through
30N59W, to 26N61W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds are within 150 nm on either side of the
front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within
240 nm to the E and SE of the front from 18N northward.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere on either side of the front.

A 1014 mb occluded low pressure center is about 400 nm to the
WSW of the Canary Islands, and about 480 nm to the N of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Gale-force winds were being generated on the
northern side of the circulation. The low pressure center has
been weakening with time. Expect strong to near-gale force winds
now. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the
surface cyclonic center. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
is within 1500 nm to the WSW of the center. Dense Saharan dust
has been moving across the Atlantic Ocean, with the low center,
between the Canary Islands and 40W. Expect the low pressure
center to continue in the same general area through Monday,
before weakening significantly on Tuesday. Precipitation:
isolated moderate within 220 nm of the center in the N
semicircle.

The current cold front gradually will become stationary in the
Virgin Islands on Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. Low
pressure to the northeast of the forecast waters will bring
fresh to strong north to northeast winds to the waters that are
to the N of 25N and to the E of 67W tonight. Long-period north
to northeast swell, to the west of the cold front, will
propagate southeastward and decay gradually through Tuesday.
Strong south to southwest winds will develop in the northwest
waters, from Monday night through Tuesday night. This will
happen in advance of the next strong cold front that is expected
to move across those same waters late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The front will reach the far eastern waters by late
Friday, while it weakens. Fresh to strong northwest winds will
follow this front through Thursday night, before diminishing to
mainly fresh winds late on Thursday night.

$$
mt
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