[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232020 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1011 mb low is along a W Atlantic front near 30N58W. An ASCAT
pass from Sunday morning at 23/1354 UTC shows that gale force
winds have already begun on the west side of the low from 28N-
31N between 60W-63W. Expect gale force winds to continue on the
west side of the low through 1800 UTC Monday afternoon, mainly
north of 28N, between 57W-63W. Expect seas of 11 to 14 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1015 mb low is S of the Canary Islands near 27N18W. The ASCAT
pass from early Sunday morning at 23/1032 UTC showed gale force
NE to E winds 27N-32N between 16W-23W, including portions of the
Canary Islands. Meteo France is forecasting gale force winds for
zones Madeira and Canarias to continue until 24/1200 UTC Monday.
Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 01N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-05N between
14W-22w, scattered showers elsewhere along the boundary

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 mb high pressure is centered near the N Carolina coast
extending across the Gulf of Mexico. A mix of broken to overcast
low clouds remain near the western Gulf especially west of 92W
and along the Mexican coast. A surface trough is near the area
from 24N97W to 18N97W. Scatterometer data shows light to moderate
winds over the NE Gulf and moderate to fresh NE winds in the SE
Gulf and the Straits of Florida.

As high pres shifts E, fresh to locally strong S flow will develop
over the far western Gulf tonight. A weak cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue morning. A stronger reinforcing
front will follow Tue night and Wed morning. The combined front
will move SE of the basin by Wed night. Gale force NW to N winds
will develop over waters S of 25N and W of 94W Wed and Wed night.
Fresh to strong winds are expected elsewhere behind the front,
then winds will subside Thu and Thu night as high pres builds over
the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Atlantic across Hispaniola near
18N73W as a stationary front to southern Nicaragua near 11N83W.
Scattered showers are within 100 m of the front. The front
is dissipating across the area. In the western Caribbean, fresh
to locally strong NE winds are present south of Cuba to Jamaica
between 77W-82W and light N winds cover the SW Caribbean Sea S
of 18N. Gentle to moderate tradewinds are over the central and E
Caribbean, except for fresh to locally strong near the coast of N
Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence
is noted.

Strong NE to E winds will pulse each night along the coast of
Colombia through Thu night. A weakening stationary front extending
from the SW tip of Haiti to SE Nicaragua will dissipate by Tue.
Behind this front, fresh to locally strong winds are expected to
the lee of Cuba, the Dominican Republic and over and downwind of
the Mona Passage tonight through Tue. The next cold front will
move into the NW Caribbean Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for details on the two Gale Warnings in the
Atlantic Ocean.

A 1011 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30N56W. A cold front
extends SW from the low to 19N71W near Hispaniola. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the front and north of 20N. Strong N
winds are behind the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is E of
the Leeward and Windward Islands from 18N59W to 08N58W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Further E, a 1016 mb
low is near 24N24W. Near the Canary Islands, a surface trough
extends NW from the low to 26N18W to 25N14W. The surface pressure
gradient is tighter NE of this trough producing gale force winds.

The cold front will stretch from 19N65N to the Mona Passage by
this evening. The front is slowing down and will stall from 22N55W
to over the Virgin Islands Mon night, then dissipate by Wed. Low
pres forming today near 29N60W could generate strong N winds over
the waters N of 25N and E of 67W today and tonight. Long period N
swell W of the cold front will propagate SE and gradually decay
through Tue. S to SW winds N of 28N and W of 75W will become
strong Mon night through Tue night ahead of the next cold front
expected to push SE from Florida Wed.

$$
MMT/ABH
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