[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1011 mb low is along a W Atlantic front near 30.5N58W. Winds to
gale force are expected Sun evening through Mon evening, mainly
north of 30N, between 60W-67W. Expect seas of 10 to 14 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1012 mb low is S of the Canary Islands near 25.5N15W. A surface
trough extends NW from the low to 29N20W. Meteo France is
forecasting gale force winds for zones Madeira and Canarias until
24/1200 UTC Monday. This area includes the Canary Islands.
Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on
their website www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to 01S30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 06N-05S between 07W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 mb high is centered over S Georgia near 32N84W. 5-10 kt
easterly winds are over the NE Gulf. 15-20 kt NE winds are over
the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. 10-15 kt E to SE winds
are over the W Gulf. A surface trough is over the western Bay of
Campeche from 22N98W to 19N96W. Broken to overcast low clouds are
over the SW Gulf W of 94W. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows
scattered showers over the Straits of Florida moving W.

As high pressure shifts E of the Gulf, fresh to locally strong
southerly flow will develop over the far western Gulf by tonight.
A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night into Tue
morning, with a stronger reinforcing front likely Tue night into
Wed morning. This front will move SE of the basin by Wed night.
Gale force northwest to north winds will follow in behind the
front over the west-central and SW Gulf waters on Wed and Wed
night, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Hispaniola near 20N72W to Nicaragua
near 13N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 m of the front.
Fresh to locally strong N winds cover the NW Caribbean sea behind
the front, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate
tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean, except for fresh
to locally strong near the coast of N Colombia. In the upper
levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

Strong NE to E wind will pulse each night through Thu night off
the coast of Colombia. A cold front that extends early this
morning from Hispaniola to S Nicaragua will become nearly
stationary by tonight, from the Mona Passage to the Nicaragua/
Costa Rica border. This front will then gradually dissipate
through the middle of the week. Behind this front, fresh to
locally strong winds are expected in the lees of Cuba and the
Dominican Republic and downwind of the Mona Passage into Tue.
Another cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Wed night.


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for details on the two Gale Warnings in the
Atlantic Ocean.

A 1011 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 30.5N58W. A cold front
extends SW from the low to 23N64W to Hispaniola near 20N72W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Strong NE winds
are behind the front. Elsewhere, a surface trough is E of the
Leeward and Windward Islands from 18N59W to 08N58W. Scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the trough axis. Further E, a 1012 mb
low is S of the Canary Islands near 25.5N15W. A surface trough
extends NW from the low to 29N20W. The surface pressure gradient
is tighter NE of this trough producing gale force winds.

The W Atlantic cold front will stretch from 31N56N to the Mona
Passage by this evening. The front will slow down and stall over
the Virgin Islands Mon, then gradually dissipate into the middle
of the week. Low pressure is expected to form today near 29N60W,
there may be some strong N winds on the back side of this low
across NE waters today and tonight. Long period N swell west of
the cold front will gradually decay through Tue as it propagates
SE. S winds in advance of the next front will increase to strong
Mon night through Tue night.

$$
Formosa
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