[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222057 AAA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
357 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...UPDATED SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 32N57.5W to 26N67W to 21N75W. Low
pressure is forecast to form along the front tonight in the
vicinity of 27N61W and slide northeastward along the front
Sunday while deepening. Winds to gale force are expected Sunday
into Monday, mainly north of 27N, between 50W-63W, with this low
pressure system along the front. Expect seas of 10 to 15 ft in
the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A 1018 mb low is presently W of the Canary Islands near 29N21W,
moving SW with a surface trough extending north to 36N24W.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the vicinity of the low
extending 60 to 80 nm to the north and east of the low. Meteo
France is forecasting gale force winds for the zone of Canarias
tonight and Sunday, from 23/0000 UTC until 23/1200 UTC. For the
24-hr period from 23/1200 UTC to 24/1200 UTC...Sunday morning
through Monday morning...Meteo France is forecasting near gale
to gale force winds for zones Irving, Madeira, Meteor, Canarias,
and Tarfaya. These zones encompass the area from 25N-32N between
35W and the west coast of Africa. Please refer to the Meteo-
France High Seas Forecast listed on their website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
06N11W to 02N18W. The ITCZ extends from 02N18W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is from 04S-03N between 19W-44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1034 mb high is centered over Alabama near 33N86W producing
15-25 kt NE winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast
cold air stratocumulus clouds cover the basin S of 28N between
83W-96W.

Strong NW winds near Veracruz, Mexico and fresh to locally strong
N to NE winds over the SE Gulf will subside by this evening. Winds
over the basin will diminish through Sun night as high pressure
ridges over the northern Gulf. Another cold front will move over
the NW Gulf Mon night and Tue, followed by a stronger front Tue
night and Wed. By Wed night the stronger front is forecast to be
SE of the area. Behind the stronger front, gales are likely over
the SW Gulf Wed and Wed night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 22/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from E Cuba near 19N74W
to the Gulf of Honduras near 16N85W stalling to 15N88W. The front
is mostly void of precipitation across the Caribbean Sea. 20-25
kt northerly winds are N of the front including the Yucatan
Channel. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the central and E Caribbean
with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper
levels, zonal flow with strong subsidence is noted.

Strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia will pulse each
night through Wed night. The cold front will push SE to reach
from Hispaniola to Nicaragua by tonight, stall from Puerto Rico
to SE Nicaragua Sun night, then dissipate by Tue. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected W of the front until Mon morning,
especially through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba.
Another cold front is likely to move into the NW Caribbean Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 22/1500 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from
30N58W to E Cuba near 20N74W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 90 nm of the front N of 23N. A surface trough is E of the
Leeward Islands from 18N56W to 14N57W moving W. Scattered showers
are within 60 nm of the trough axis. A 1035 mb high is north of
the Azores near 42N13W. A 1018 mb low is NW of the Canary Islands
near 29N20W. Scattered showers are within the vicinity of the low
pressure. See the Special Features section above.

The S end of the front will slowly shift E to near Puerto Rico by
Mon morning. Near gale conditions are expected behind the front
today. Low pres developing along the front tonight near 29N61W
will produce near gale conditions are possible N of 23N and E of
65W Sun night. Large N swell associated W of the front will spread
SE through Sun night and slowly decay. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week, then increase over the NW waters Mon
night through Wed ahead of the next cold front due to arrive Wed
night.

$$
MMT/ABH
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net