[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220543
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1243 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the southwest Gulf of
Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the special features mentioned below.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

Gale force northerly winds are occurring in the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico offshore of Veracruz Mexico. The gale area is from
19N-21N between 94W-97W. Seas are 13-19 ft. The gale is expected
to end shortly at 22/0600 UTC.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from
31N64W to central Cuba near 22N78W. The N to NE gales are behind
the front, N of 28N between 73W-80W. Seas are 15-20 ft. The gale
is forecast to end shortly at 22/0600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from
08N-03S between 05W-12W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 01S-05S between 15W-22W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is from 04N-04S between 25W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale force N winds remain over the SW Gulf of Mexico offshore of
Veracruz Mexico. See above. 15-30 kt northerly winds are elsewhere
over the Gulf. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds
cover the basin S of 29N.

Gale force winds offshore of Veracruz, Mexico will diminish
overnight. Elsewhere, strong N to NE winds and large seas in N
swell will gradually diminish Sat through Sun as a high pressure
ridge builds across the Gulf. Another cold front will move across
the Gulf Mon night through Tue night, followed by a stronger
reinforcing cold front Tue night through Wed night. Gale force
conditions are possible mid week over the SW Gulf behind this
front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from central Cuba near
22N78W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. The front is mostly
void of precipitation. 20-25 kt northerly winds are N of the
front, to include the Yucatan Channel. 10-25 kt tradewinds are
over the central and E Caribbean with strongest winds along the
coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow with strong
subsidence is noted.

Strong NE to E winds off the coast of Colombia will diminish by
Sat morning as the pressure gradient weakens across the region. A
cold front extending across the Yucatan Channel will bring strong
N winds and building seas to the NW Caribbean overnight. The front
will weaken as it pushes into the central Caribbean this weekend.
Fresh to strong winds will prevail through the Windward Passage
and in the lee of Cuba Sat night through Sun night behind the
front. High pressure will move eastward across the W Atlc early
next week. Another cold front may move into the NW Caribbean Wed
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Gale force winds remain over the W Atlantic. See above. As of
22/0300 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N64W
to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm E of the front N of 27N. A surface trough is E of
the Leeward Islands from 23N57W to 17N58W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the trough axis. A 1034 mb high is centered over
the Azores near 38N26W. A 1018 mb low is N of the Canary Islands
near 31N19W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low
center. The low is expected to move SSW over the next 24 hours,
and will usher in near gale force winds over the Canary Islands.

The W Atlantic cold front will continue moving SE across the
offshore waters through the weekend. Gale force northerly winds
and very large seas will continue west of the front over the
northern waters through tonight. Low pressure may develop along
the front on Sat and bring near gale force winds to the waters E
of 70W. Large N swell associated with the front will spread SE
through the weekend while gradually decaying. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week, then increase over the northern waters
by mid week ahead of the next cold front.

$$
Formosa
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