[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210621
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warnings are in effect for portions of the Gulf of Mexico,
Caribbean and western Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
on the special features mentioned below.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W to
the SW Gulf of Mexico near 24N93W to the coast of Mexico just
north of Veracruz near 20N96W, moving SE. Gale force winds are
forecast to develop behind the front shortly on 21/0600 UTC from
22N-24N between 96W- 98W. Seas will be start at 8-10 ft and build
to 17 ft. The gale area is forecast to shift SE and last until
22/0600 UTC Fri night.

...WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to near Cocoa
Florida at 28N81W. Gale force N to NE winds are expected behind
the front starting Fri evening. On 21/1800 UTC, the cold front
forecast position is from 31N68W to 27N73W to 23N80W. Gale force
winds are forecast N of 29N between 76W-80W. Sea heights of 14 to
18 feet are expected. Gale force winds will end by 22/0600 UTC
Friday night.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

Gale force winds are off the coast of N Colombia from 11N-12N
between 74W-76W. Seas are 10-12 ft. Winds will diminish below
gale force on 21/1200 UTC Friday.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the border of Liberia and Sierra
Leone near 07N11W to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to
01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm either side of the axis.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21/0300 UTC, a 1017 mb low is E of Horseshoe Beach Florida
near 29N84W. A cold front extends SW from the low to the SW Gulf
of Mexico near 24N93W to the coast of Mexico just north of
Veracruz near 20N96W. Numerous 25-30 kt reports are N of the
front. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. In the
upper levels zonal flow is noted with strong subsidence.

The cold front will move SE across the Gulf of Mexico through
Fri, then exit the basin by Fri night. Frequent gusts to gale
force are expected over the NW Gulf tonight behind the front. Gale
conditions are expected over the Tampico offshore waters
overnight, and over the offshore waters near Veracruz Fri and Fri
night. Strong N to NE winds and building seas in northerly swell
are expected elsewhere behind the front. Seas will subside across
the Gulf this weekend. Another cold front will move across the
western Gulf Mon night through Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gale-force winds along the coast of N Colombia will end on
21/1200 UTC. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea with weakest winds over the Yucatan Channel.
Clusters of scattered showers are moving W with the tradewinds, S
of 20N. Upper level ridging with strong subsidence is suppressing
all deep convection.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
winds across the central Caribbean tonight, with minimal gale
force winds expected near the coast of Colombia. Winds and seas
will diminish across the southern Caribbean and the Tropical N
Atlantic waters Fri through the weekend. A Gulf of Mexico cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel late Fri and move across the
NW Caribbean through Sat night, followed by fresh to strong
northerly winds. High pressure building behind the front will
support fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and near
Cuba Sun into Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to near Cocoa
Florida at 28N81W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm
of the front. A 1034 mb high is centered over the Azores near
38N26W. A 1017 mb low is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N14W.
a cold front extends S to the Canary Islands producing scattered
showers.

The W Atlantic cold front will move SE across the forecast waters
overnight through this weekend. Near gale force winds are
expected on both sides of the front through Fri night, with
northerly gales likely over the northern waters following frontal
passage. Large N swell associated with this system will propagate
southward across the waters through the weekend, then gradually
subside early next week.

$$
Formosa
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