[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191758
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The current situation in the Caribbean Sea consists of: NE-to-E
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17 feet,
from 11N to 13N between 73W and 78W. The gale-force winds will
slow down, to less than gale-force, in 6 hours or so. The gale-
force winds will return tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

The 42-hour forecast, starting at 19/1200 UTC, consists of a
forecast cold front from 31N76W to 28N78W to 26N80W. Expect:
N OF 26N W OF FRONT W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT N 25 TO 30
KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT N OF 30N E OF 78W. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT...EXCEPT 10 TO 14 FT N OF 30N E OF 78W. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

The 36-hour forecast, starting at 19/1200 UTC, consists of
forecast cold front from 29N83W to 24N92W to 24N97W. Expect:
NW OF FRONT NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST:
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST:
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is along 05N, passing through the Prime
Meridian along 05N, through the southern sections of Liberia,
to 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W, to 05N17W, 03N24W,
to 01N28W, 01N31W, crossing the Equator along 37W, to 01S43W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 75
nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 01W and 07W in parts
of Africa. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from
05N southward from 50W eastward. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are to the north of
the line that runs from 24N85W to 27N86W to 25N90W to the NW
corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. It is passing
through the Florida Panhandle, across SE Louisiana, to the
southernmost point of Texas at the coast.  near 29N92W to S Texas
near 27N97W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 20
kt N winds are N of the front. 5-15 kt SE winds are over the
remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere, radar imagery shows scattered
showers along the coast of central Florida near Tampa from 26N-29N
between 82W-84W.

The current cold front will move southeastward, slowly, through
tonight. Reinforcing cold air then will push the front across the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, quickly, from Thursday through
Friday. Gale-force wind conditions are possible in the offshore
waters of Tampico Mexico on Friday morning, and in the far SW
Gulf of Mexico and the offshore waters of Veracruz Mexico on
Friday evening. Expect strong north to northeast winds elsewhere
behind the front, and building seas, through Friday night. The sea
heights will subside on Saturday and Saturday night. Fresh
southerly wind flow will set up in the western Gulf of Mexico,
from Saturday night through Sunday night. This will be happening
in advance of the next cold front, that is expected in the far NW
Gulf on Sunday night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers, in
trade wind flow, span the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals
that are listed for the period that ended at 13/0000 UTC,
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.24 in San Juan in Puerto
Rico; 0.14 in Guadeloupe; 0.11 in Trinidad; 0.08 in St. Thomas in
the Virgin Islands; 0.02 in Curacao; and a trace, in Nassau in
the Bahamas.

The current wind situation in the Caribbean Sea consists of: NE-
to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17
feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 78W. The gale-force winds
will slow down, to less than gale-force, in 6 hours or so. The
gale- force winds will return tonight. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, through Thursday.
The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale-force off the coast of
Colombia, tonight and on Thursday night. The wind speeds and the
sea heights will diminish in the Caribbean Sea, and in the
Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, from Thursday through Friday night. A
cold front that is in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan
Channel on Friday night, and move across the NW Caribbean Sea
through Saturday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center
that is near 33N09W along the coast of Morocco, to the Canary
Islands, to a 29N34W cyclonic circulation center, to 24N37W.
A separate upper level trough is along 20N26W, to 15N40W, to
12N50W, to 09N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to
30N between 44W and 58W.

High pressure to the north of the area will support fresh to
strong winds near the Windward Passage through tonight. A
cold front will move into the northwest waters today, and then
become stationary near 30N through Thursday. Reinforcing cold air
will push a strong cold front across the forecast area from
Thursday night through Saturday. Near gale to gale-force winds
are expected on both sides of the front on Friday. The wind speeds
will diminish gradually across the region from Saturday through
Sunday. Large seas, producing potentially hazardous conditions,
are expected in the waters that are to the north and northeast of
the Bahamas, from Friday through early on Sunday. The seas will
subside slowly, thereafter through Sunday night.

$$
MT
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