[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190526
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1226 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and
relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected
to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next
couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach
gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as
19 ft Wed. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United
States will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow
the gales to abate by Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit
our website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N28W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 300 nm either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Fair and mild weather conditions prevail across the entire Gulf
of Mexico supported by deep-layer ridging and subsidence
overhead. The only notable hazard is areas of dense fog within 30
nm of the coast from Pensacola Florida westward. The fog is
expected to mix out by Wed afternoon as a cold front moves into
the northern Gulf. Surface winds are generally light to moderate
from the SE, strongest over Bay of Campeche. Seas are generally in
the 3 to 5 ft range, except for the NE waters where seas are
running 1 to 3 ft.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight and slowly move
southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then
help push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu
through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible over the offshore
waters of Tampico Fri morning, and Veracruz Fri afternoon into Fri
night. Expect strong to near gale force N-NE winds elsewhere
behind the front and building seas through early Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south-
central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the
warning section above. Otherwise, moderate to strong trade-wind
flow continues across much of the region today. Visible satellite
images show patches of low-level clouds and isolated shallow
showers moving within the trade wind flow across the bulk of the
area. However, the showers are expected to be light and short-
lived as abundant dry air lies in the mid and upper levels of the
atmosphere. Seas are high near the coast of Colombia, up to 18 ft
with sea conditions notably less hazardous over the NW Caribbean
sea.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to near-gale
force winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to
gale force off the coast of Colombia at night. A cold front moving
N of the area Thu evening through Sun will reduce the pressure
gradient in the region and diminish the wind speeds to fresh to
strong through Fri evening and gentle to fresh the remainder of
the weekend. Fresh to locally strong winds and long- period NE
swell are expected across the Tropical N Atlantic waters through
Wed evening. The swell will subside early on Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface high pressure ridges WSW from a 1038 mb high centered
just E of the Azores near 40N17W to the E coast of Florida.
Subsidence and dry air aloft dominate the subtropical and tropical
Atlantic basin this evening, resulting in fair weather across the
majority of the area. The only exception is over the central
Atlantic, where an upper-level trough extending S from 32N57W to
20N57W is supporting patchy cloudiness and isolated showers north
of 20N between 45W and 58W. Seas are highest over the central and
eastern Atlantic in long period N swell.

High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong winds in
the approaches of the Windward Passage through early Thu. A cold
front will move off the SE U.S. coast Wed morning and briefly
stall over waters north of 28N Wed night and Thu. A reinforcing
cold front will enter the NW forecast waters Thu evening. Fresh to
near gale force winds are expected ahead and behind the front N
of the Bahamas through Sat. Winds will gradually diminish
afterwards through Sun night. Large NE swell is expected to impact
much of the area Thu night through Sun.

$$
Formosa
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