[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181055
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
555 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. Sea heights will reach as high as 17 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W
to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 00N30W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-
04N between 20W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 18/0900 UTC, a stationary front is over N Florida from 31N80W
to 29N83W to 31N87W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over
the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 29N and E of 90W. Fair weather is over
the S Gulf, S of 26N. 10-20 kt SE return flow is over the Gulf
with strongest winds over the W Gulf, and weakest winds over the
NE Gulf.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue night and slowly move
southward through Wed night. A reinforcing cold front will then
help push the front quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu
through Fri. Gale force conditions are possible west of this front
offshore of Tampico, Mexico Thu night, and Veracruz, Mexico Fri
into Fri night. Elsewhere, expect strengthening NE winds and
building seas across the Gulf following the second cold front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is along the coast of N Colombia. See above. 10-30 kt
tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with
weakest winds over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are
over the Caribbean S of 20N, moving W. In the upper levels, a
ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 81W. Strong
subsidence covers the entire area suppressing deep convection.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean through Thu night, pulsing to
gale force off the coast of Colombia each night. High pressure
will weaken north of the area Thu night, helping to diminish winds
Fri and Sat. Long-period N to NE swell will move across the
Tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu, then subside Fri and Fri
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the NW Atlantic near 31N80W. The tail
end of another stationary front enters the NW Atlantic near
31N61W and extends to 27N69W. A 1039 mb high is centered over the
Azores near 40N25W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
low is centered near the Canary Islands at 26N15W producing
scattered showers.

Low pressure between the Carolinas and Bermuda will shift north
later today as high pressure briefly builds across the area. The
area of high pressure will then shift eastward mid-week enabling a
cold front to move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed. This front will
briefly stall over N waters Wed night and Thu, before a
reinforcing cold front pushes it southward across the region Thu
night through Sat night. Gale conditions are possible west of the
front across the northern waters Thu night and Fri, with large N
to E swell expected to impact much of the area by Fri night.

$$
Formosa

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