[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
651 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows near
gale force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N
between 74W-77W. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 06N10W to
03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01S26W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07S-
03N between 12W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 16/2100 UTC, a 1015 mb low was located off the SE Louisiana
coast near 30N89W. A stationary front extends east of the low to
the west coast of Florida near 30N83W. A cold front extends
southwest of the low to 27N96W with a trough extending from that
point to the coast of Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen along the stationary front in the
NE Gulf, N of 28N and E of 88W. Broken clouds and isolated showers
are seen from 23N-30N between 84W-97W. A trough is in the western
Bay of Campeche from 24N97W top 19N95W. The latest scatterometer
data and surface observations depict gentle winds across most of
the basin, with moderate winds in the NE Gulf. Seas range from 2
to 5 ft.

A cold front over NW Gulf will stall over the northern waters
tonight then lift northward on Mon. The next cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night, then move slowly across
the Gulf region Wed through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push
the cold front across the Gulf waters late Thu into Fri. Gale
force conditions are possible west of the front offshore of
Tampico, Mexico late Thu night, and offshore of Veracruz, Mexico
on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level cyclonic flow over the far eastern Caribbean
Sea continues to weaken. Scattered showers linger across the
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, as well as the waters to the
south and southeast of Puerto Rico. Comparatively drier air is
seen over the central and western portions of the basin. The
latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows strong trades south of
16N between 71W-78W, with near gale- force winds near the coast of
Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N between 74W-77W. Gentle to moderate
trades are noted across the NW and eastern Caribbean. Seas near
Colombia are up to 9 ft with 3-5 ft elsewhere.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Fri
night. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia
each night through Thu night. N to NE swell will move across the
Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu before stating to
subside Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb low is located near 31N61W with a stationary front
extending southwest from it to 26N73W. A shear line extends
westward from that point to near the Florida Keys near 25N80W.
Showers are seen along the front. Two troughs are analyzed in the
west-central Atlantic: one from 28N55W to 21N62W, and the other
from 26N46W to 22N49W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are
associated with both of these features. High pressure dominates
the rest of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are seen on the
north side of the stationary front/shear line with seas up to 8
ft.

A cold front will briefly reach the NW waters tonight into Mon,
the move N of the area by Mon night. The next cold front will move
off the SE U.S. coast on Wed and stall over the northern waters
on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the front southward Thu
night into Fri. Gale conditions are possible W of the front across
the north waters Thu night and Fri.

$$
AKR
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