[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows near
gale force winds near the coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N
between 74W-77W. Sea heights will range from 10 to 14 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 06N11W to
03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 02S28W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 07S-01S between 20W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 16/1500 UTC, a 1017 mb surface low is over southeast Louisiana
near 29.5N91W. A cold front has formed and extends from the low to
28N92W to 27N95W. A surface trough continues to 24N98W. A
stationary front extends E from the low to the Florida Big Bend
near 30N84W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen
over the northern Gulf north of 28N between 87W-91W, including the
Gulf Coast from Pensacola to just east of New Orleans. Scattered
showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere north of 27N between
84W-93W. Isolated showers are near the surface trough off the
lower Texas coast. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the Bay of
Campeche along 94W from 18N-22N. Broken clouds and isolated
showers are west of the trough. Clearing skies are seen over the
eastern Bay of Campeche due to mid-level anticyclonic flow over
the area. In the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, a shear line extends
from the Florida Keys to 23N86W as of 16/1500 UTC. Scattered
showers are within 15 nm either side of the shear line.

The shear line from the Florida Keys to 23N86W will gradually
dissipate this afternoon and tonight. The cold front over the NW
Gulf will stall over the northern Gulf waters tonight then lift
northward on Mon. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf Tue night, then move slowly across the Gulf region Wed
through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the cold front across
the Gulf waters late Thu into Fri. Gale force conditions are
possible west of the front offshore of Tampico, Mexico late Thu
night, and offshore of Veracruz, Mexico on Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level cyclonic flow over the far eastern Caribbean
Sea has weakened since yesterday. Scattered showers continue to
linger over the Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, as well as the
waters to the south and southeast of Puerto Rico. Comparatively
drier air is seen over the central and western portions of the
basin. The latest ASCAT pass from 16/1420 UTC shows strong trades
south of 16N between 71W-78W, with near gale-force winds near the
coast of Colombia from 10.5N-12.5N between 74W-77W.

Gale force winds will continue pulsing each night off the coast
of Colombia through Thu night. High pressure north of the area
will maintain fresh to strong trade winds elsewhere across the
central Caribbean through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 32N57W to 29N63W to 26.5N73W, then
continues as a dissipating stationary front to 26N78W. A shear
line extends from 26N78W to 23N86W. Scattered showers are along
and within 120 nm north of the stationary front. Scattered showers
are within 15 nm either side of the shear line. The latest ASCAT
pass shows fresh NE to E winds within 180 nm north of the
stationary front and shear line. The stationary front will
gradually dissipate through tonight. A weak cold front will
briefly reach the waters off NE Florida tonight into Mon, then
move N of the area by Mon night. The next significant cold front
will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed and stall over the northern
waters on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push the front southward
Thu night into Fri. Gale conditions are possible W of the front,
to the east of Florida, and well north of the Bahamas, Thu night
and Fri.

Farther east, two NE-SW oriented surface troughs currently extend
from 27N54W to 21N60W and from 26N44W to 21N48W, respectively.
Isolated showers are within 60 nm of both trough axes. Upper-
level troughing to the east of the Lesser Antilles is producing
scattered showers from 10N-21N between 49W-59W. The GOES-16 RGB
Geocolor product shows dusty Saharan Air over the eastern Atlantic
from 14N-30N between 20W-40W. Fresh to locally strong trade winds
are over the tropical Atlantic from 07N-20N between 30W-62W.
Looking ahead, large N swell will move across the tropical
Atlantic between 20W-60W Mon through Thu. The swell will affect
Atlantic facing shores of the Leeward and Windward Islands. For
the waters near the Canary Islands and offshore of Western Sahara,
expect NE winds to increase to near gale-force on Tuesday.

$$
Hagen
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