[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1157 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. The strongest winds are expected from 10.5N to 13N
between 74W-78W. Sea heights will range from 11 to 14 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning...

A cold front passes through 32N63W to 29N71W to Great Abaco Island
Bahamas near 26.5N77W to 25N80W. ASCAT passes from approximately
15/1400 UTC show gale force N to NE winds extending from 30 to 150
nm northwest of the cold front, north of 29N between 68W-75W.
Within the next couple of hours, this afternoon, expect the winds
to diminish below gale force south of 31N. Expect sea heights of
10 to 13 ft in the area today. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast, under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or
see the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through southern sections of Liberia
near 05N09W to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02N17W to the coast
of Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is from
04S-03N between 20W-31W, and from 06S-03S between 05W-17W.
Scattered moderate convection is also seen along the coast of
Brazil from 05S-01S between 35W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes across Great Abaco Island Bahamas near
26.5N77W to 24N82.5W to 24N86W, then continues as a stationary
front to 24N90W to 23N92W. A surface trough is from 23N92W to
20N93W. Two more surface troughs are over the western Gulf of
Mexico, one from 18N93W to 24N97W, and another along the Texas
coast from just south of Brownsville to Galveston. Strong NW winds
are west of the trough over the western Bay of Campeche from
19N-21N. Broken clouds with isolated showers are seen within 150
nm north of the front over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico.
In the western Gulf, these conditions prevail over much of the
area. High pressure building into the NE Gulf behind the front is
creating mostly fair weather north of 27N and east of 90W.

The front from the Florida Straits to 23N92W will dissipate
tonight over the far SE Gulf. High pressure will build in the wake
of this front early next week. A cold front will move into the NW
Gulf Tue night, then move across the Gulf Wed into Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper-level low is centered over the NE Caribbean near
17N64W. Cyclonic upper-level wind flow covers the eastern
Caribbean Sea east of 70W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are seen across the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is evident in water vapor
imagery over the remainder of the Caribbean to the west of 70W.
This is due to strong mid-level ridging over the western
Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades across much of
the basin, except for strong to near-gale winds in the south-
central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia.

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds across the central Caribbean into Thu, pulsing to gale
force each night off the coast of Colombia.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See section above for information on the gale behind the western
Atlantic cold front. The cold front extends from 32N63W to Great
Abaco Island to 25N80W. Outside of the gale area, strong to near
gale force NE winds are north of the front, north of 26.5N and
east of 80.5W. Isolated to scattered light to moderate rainshowers
are within 30 nm ahead and within 90 nm behind the cold front.
Farther E, a 1026 mb high is near 27N49W. This is part of a
surface ridge that extends from 33N19W to 27N49W to 26N66W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds are near the surface ridge axis. Farther south,
cloudiness with scattered showers associated with a large upper-
level low is seen east of the Lesser Antilles from 10N-20N between
51W-61W. Fresh to locally strong trades cover the tropical
Atlantic from 05N-20N between 36W-62W.

The cold front that extends from 32N63W to the NW Bahamas to
25N80W will move east and weaken today. This front will stall Sun
from SE of Bermuda into the central Bahamas and Straits of
Florida, then dissipate Sun night. Gale conditions are expected
into this afternoon well N and NE of the Bahamas, before winds
diminish as the front weakens tonight. High pressure will build
across the region Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, the next cold front
may move off the SE U.S. coast Wed or Wed night.

$$
Hagen
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