[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120511
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A tight pressure gradient will continue to support gale-force
winds each night through Sun night along the coast of N Colombia
south of 12N between 74W and 76W. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product under
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed evening then cross the
Gulf through Fri evening. Winds will reach gale force west of the
front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz Thu night. The front
will stall and gradually weaken over the south-central and SE
Gulf Fri night, as high pressure builds in its wake. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest Offshore Waters Forecast product
under MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 04N12W. The ITCZ extends from 01N17W to 02N22W to 00N36W
to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 00N to 03N between 12W and 23W. Isolated showers
are also noted N of the ITCZ from 00N to 03N between 23W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends SW from the coast of Louisiana near
29.5N92.5W to low pres 1010 mb centered off the Texas Coastal Bend
near 27N95.5W. A cold front curves SW from the low to the NE
Tamaulipas coast of Mexico near 25N97.5W. Extensive cloudiness and
patchy light rain are evident N of the fronts. Scatterometer data
depicts light to moderate SE winds across the basin with the
exception of N of the fronts, where moderate to fresh N to NE
winds were seen. Otherwise, deep layer ridging was maintaining
fair weather over the basin.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf through Wed evening. A
cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Wed evening then move across
the Gulf through Fri evening. Please refer to the Special
Features Section for more details on the next Gulf of Mexico Gale
event.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the special features section above for details on the
Gale Warning, currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across most of the basin, except south of 17N between
62W and 80W, where fresh to strong winds prevail. Strong mid to
upper-level subsidence over the basin will suppress convection for
the next couple of days.

High pressure ridging will prevail N of the area through the
weekend. This will maintain strong trades across the central
Caribbean through the period, except for gale force winds pulsing
each night along the Colombian coast.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge, anchored by a
1031 mb high centered near 33N35W. This ridge is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical northern
Atlantic, south of 25N and E of 60W. Winds N of Hispaniola will be
fresh the next couple of days, except on the approach to the
Windward Passage, where winds will be strong.

Strong high pressure will reside over the forecast waters until
tonight. A cold front is expected to move off the southeastern
United States coast Thu evening. The front will move SE across
the area through Sat before dissipating over the central waters
Sat night into Sun. High pressure will build across the Atlc in
the wake of the front.

$$
CAM
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