[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091113
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
613 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

The current forecast, valid at 09/0600 UTC, consists of NE-to-E
gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet,
from 11N to 12N between 73W and 76W, along the coast of Colombia.
The gale-force winds will last for the next 6 hours or so, and
continue again at the 18-hour time period. Please read the latest
HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE
FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS
National Hurricane Center, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the Prime Meridian along 03N, to 03N07W
06N13W, 04N18W, and 04N22W. An inverted surface trough is along
24W/26W from 06N southward. The ITCZ also is along 01S26W 01S30W
01S34W 03S37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N southward
from 30W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 01N to 04S between 30W and 40W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are from 10N
southward between 40W and 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW-to-W wind flow spans the entire Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico into the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure, centered in the Carolinas, will extend SW across
the Gulf of Mexico through the early part of the week. A cold
front will reach the western Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday,
possibly surging SE through much of the basin through Thursday.
The cold front will stall and weaken in the SE part of the area
by the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in broken low level
clouds, in trade wind flow, across the entire area.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery
covers the Caribbean Sea, to the east of the line that runs from
SW Haiti to eastern Honduras. The drier air covers inland areas of
Central America and South America, from Honduras to Panama, and
from Colombia to Guyana.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that
ended at 09/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are:
0.13 in Guadeloupe.

High pressure, centered to the N and E of the area, will build
into the Caribbean Sea during the upcoming week. Nighttime gale-
force wind events are expected off the coast of Colombia, from
tonight through the next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level SW wind flow moves from the Gulf of Mexico, across
Florida, into the western part of the Atlantic Ocean, to the west
of the current stationary front.

A stationary front passes through 32N62W, to 27N70W, to the
central Bahamas near 24N76W, into the Straits of Florida and the
coast of Cuba near 23N84W. Precipitation: Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and isolated to widely scattered moderate
within 90 nm to 150 nm on either side of the stationary front.
24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 09/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 1.17 in
Bermuda.

An upper level trough extends from an upper level cyclonic
circulation center that is in SW Mauritania, to 22N35W and and
23N48W, to a 15N54W upper level cyclonic circulation center, to
NE Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N southward
between 50W and 70W, in the Atlantic Ocean.

The current stationary front will dissipate gradually through
Monday. High pressure, centered to the W of the Azores, will build
westward to Florida by the middle of the week. The ridge will
weaken somewhat by the end of the week. A cold front will attempt
to move southeastward off the coast of Florida.

$$
MT
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