[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062337
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
637 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is pushing across the Gulf of Mexico stretching from
FL Panhandle near 30N86W to the SW Gulf near 18N95W. As the cold
front enters the eastern Gulf, gale force winds will develop on
both sides of the front this evening. The gale will persist until
07/1200 UTC.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight. Pre-frontal
southerly gale force winds will develop over the western Atlantic
this evening, 07/0000 UTC. As the front pushes across this part of
the basin, gale force force winds will continue on both sides of
the front until 07/2100 UTC.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details on the three special features listed below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W
to 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N16W to 01S29W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is along
the ITCZ and 180 nm to the north.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 07/2100 UTC, the cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico
from Fl Panhandle near 30N86W to the SW Gulf near 18N93W. A
squall line is present ahead of the front from 29N85W to 26N86W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 80 nm of the
front N of 24N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of
the front.

By late Fri morning, this front will have moved SE of the Gulf.
On either side of the front, gale force winds are developing N of
26N and E of 88W, which will continue through tonight. Seas of up
to 15 ft are expected in the NE Gulf as well. Elsewhere, expect
fresh to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf region on
either side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E
Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across
the Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to move
off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall and dissipate near the
northern Gulf coast Sun into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strong winds
to the N Colombia and weakest winds along the coast of Costa Rica.
Patches of scattered showers are over the higher elevations of
Hispaniola and Jamaica. An upper level ridge is over the Caribbean
with axis along 78W. Strong subsidence is over the entire area
suppressing convection.

High pressure centered in the central Atlantic will shift eastward
into the weekend, allowing a cold front to enter the NW Caribbean.
This front will stall and dissipate over the weekend. High pressure
building again north of the area in the wake of the front will
support winds to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, starting
late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb broad high near 28N52W remains in control across the
western and central portion of the Atlantic. ASCAT data indicates
east to northeast fresh winds south of 18N to 06N.

High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 29N53W has an axis that
extends this afternoon into the Bahamas. This ridge will weaken
and move east through the remainder of the week, allowing a cold
front to move off the FL coast tonight and enter the Bahamas later
Fri, where it will stall and dissipate over the weekend. Gale
force S and SW winds are developing ahead of this front to the N
of 28N and W of 74W and will persist through Fri. Behind the
front, NW gales will evolve over the same area later tonight and
Fri.

$$
MMTorres
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