[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
528 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

A cold front is pushing across the west-central Gulf of Mexico,
stretching from southeast Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near
21N97W. As the cold front enters the eastern Gulf, gale force SW
winds will develop ahead of the boundary Thursday evening, 07/0000
UTC from 26N-29N between 84W-86W. This will last through 07/0300
UTC. As the front pushes across central Florida and the SE Gulf, W
to NW gale force winds will develop by Thursday night, 07/0600
UTC, from 27N-29N between 84W-89W. Seas will range from 12 to 16
ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front will enter the western Atlantic on Thursday night.
Southerly gale force winds will develop on either side of the
front by Thursday evening, 07/0000 UTC. As the front pushes across
this part of the basin, gale force force winds will continue
to move with the front through Friday afternoon, 07/1800 UTC.
Expect the gale-force winds to occur from 28N- 31N between 72W-
80W. Seas will range from 12 to 18 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC,
or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details on the three special features listed below.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N26W to the coast
of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-03N between 18W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough continues to dig across the U.S. southern
Plains as it moves east toward the Gulf of Mexico. At 06/0900
UTC, a cold front extends off the southeast Louisiana coast near
29N91W to 24N94W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across the western and central Gulf
coast, from 27N-30N between 85W-93W. A line of thunderstorms are
seen right along the cold front N of 28N. A 1003 mb low is in the
southern Bay of Campeche near 19N95W with a trough extending
along the low from 18N94W to 21N97W. Scattered showers are seen
near this feature and the front, from 19N-22N between 93W-98W.
Scattered showers are seen in the waters off the Florida
Panhandle ahead of the approaching front.

The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SE winds
ahead of the front with moderate to fresh NW winds behind the
front. Seas are ranging from 5 to 8 ft.

The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan
Channel tonight, then pass southeast of the basin on Fri. Gale
force winds are likely ahead and behind the front over the north
waters E of 90W today and tonight. Seas are forecast to build to
14 or 15 ft. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building
seas across the Gulf region on either side of the front. Winds and
seas will diminish from W to E Fri into the weekend as high
pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Another cold front
is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall near
the northern Gulf coast Sun into Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid- to upper-level ridging continues to cover the Caribbean.
Scattered showers are seen moving across the Greater and Lesser
Antilles. An area of moderate showers is noted between the Cayman
Islands and Cuba. However, the subsidence from the ridging is
inhibiting deep convection.

The latest scatterometer data depicts easterly near-gale force
winds north of Colombia with strong trades across the central
basin in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, fresh
trades are seen in the eastern and parts of the western Caribbean.
Seas are ranging 4 to 6 feet across the Caribbean, with seas
building to 12 feet north of Colombia and 9 feet in the Gulf of
Honduras.

High pressure north of the area will shift eastward through Fri
ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico into the
Atlantic. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean Fri
then stall and dissipate through Sun. High pressure building again
north of the area in the wake of the front will support winds to
gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb broad high near 28N49W remains in control across the
western and central portion of the Atlantic. Further east, a cold
front passes through 31N25W to 28N29W to 25N36W. The tail-end of
the front stalls from 25N36W to 25N40W to 22N42W. Isolated
showers are possible along the front, especially along the
stationary front. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic, N of 28N between
78W-80W with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet.

A ridge dominates the forecast waters along 28N. Southerly flow
will strengthen north of the Bahamas through tonight, ahead of a
strong cold front that will move off the coast of Florida late
tonight into Fri. Gale force winds are expected on either side of
the front north of 29N late today and tonight and Fri. The front
will reach from 31N73W to western Cuba on Fri, then stall from
just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning through
Sun morning. The front is expected to lift northward on Sun and
gradually dissipate through Mon.

$$

AKR
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