[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N62W to 24N70W to
21N75W, moving E. Gale force S to SW winds are E of the front
within 29N59W to 28N63W to 29N65W to 31N65W to 31N54W to 29N59W.
Seas are 11-18 ft. Gale force winds are forecast to end Mon
evening 03/1800 UTC.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia
will support gale force winds overnight from 03/0000 UTC to
03/1200 UTC ; and again from 04/0000 UTC to 04/1200 UTC. Seas will
be 9-11 ft.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 00N37W to the coast of
Brazil near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-04N
between 33W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 02/2100 UTC, a 1023 mb high is centered over the W Gulf of
Mexico near 26N92W with mostly fair weather. 5-15 kt anticyclonic
winds are over the Gulf with weakest winds near the high center
and strongest winds over the Straits of Florida.

The surface high will shift eastward across the basin through
Mon. This pattern will support fresh to strong southerly flow Mon
through Tue in the western Gulf ahead of the next front. The
front is expected to enter the basin by early Wed, reach from SE
Louisiana to the southwest Gulf Wed night, pushing southeast of
the basin by the end of the week. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected on either side of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 02/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Windward Passage
near 20N73W to Honduras near 14N86W. Scattered showers are within
120 nm of the front. Fresh to locally strong N winds cover the NW
Caribbean behind the front. Dry air covers the remainder of the
basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the south-
central Caribbean, with strong to near gale force in a small area
near the coast of Colombia.

The cold front will stall and weaken from Haiti to Nicaragua
before dissipating into Tue. High pressure building north of the
area in the wake of the front will support strong trade winds
across the south central Caribbean through the period, pulsing to
gale force off Colombia at night beginning tonight and continuing
through mid week. Another cold front may approach the Yucatan
Channel by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 02/2100 UTC, a cold front over the W Atlantic extends from
31N59W to the Windward Passage near 20N73W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm of the front N of 27N. A 1024 mb high
is over the central Atlantic near 30N44W. A cold front is over the
E Atlantic from 31N25W to 23N30W to 19N40W to 18N50W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front.

The W Atlantic cold front will move southeast and reach from
30N50W to Puerto Rico Mon. Fresh to near gale force winds behind
the front will diminish tonight, while large, fresh seas gradually
subside. High pressure will build in behind the front from west
to east through mid week. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
expected by the end of the week ahead of the next cold front. That
front is forecast to shift off Florida Fri, reaching from near
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas by late Fri night.

$$
Formosa
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