[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1216 PM EST Sun Feb 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Gale
force winds are within 300 nm ahead of the front and within 60 nm
behind the front, north of 30N, according to the latest ASCAT
pass. Expect gales to continue through tonight, generally north of
29N, as the front moves eastward. This afternoon, expect gales
north of 29N between 53W-67W. Tonight, expect gales north of 29N
between 49W-63W. Wave heights of 12 to 18 ft are expected in the
area. Winds are forecast to be below gale force by Monday morning
at 1200 UTC.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...

High pressure north of the area will support gale force winds near
the coast of Colombia at night tonight and again Monday night.
Sea heights of 8 to 11 ft are expected in the area.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W
to 04N22W. The ITCZ is from 04N22W to 01N34W to the coast of
Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N
between 28W-34W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of
the monsoon trough between the west coast of Africa and 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure center is near 24N95W. A surface ridge
extends eastward to the Florida west coast. Moderate N winds are
over the E Gulf. The high pressure will shift eastward across the
basin through Mon. This pattern will support fresh to strong
southerly flow Mon through Tue in the western Gulf ahead of the
next front. The front is expected to enter the basin by Tue night,
reach from SE Louisiana to the southwest Gulf Wed night, and push
southeast of the basin by the end of the week. Fresh to strong
winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through east-central Cuba near 21N77W to the
Cayman Islands near 19N81W to Honduras near 15N87.5W. Isolated
showers are possible along the front, including inland in
Honduras. Fresh to locally strong N winds cover the NW Caribbean
behind the front. Dry air covers the remainder of the basin. The
latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the south-central
Caribbean, with strong to near gale force in a small area near the
coast of Colombia.

The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to eastern
Honduras late today, then stall and weaken from Haiti to eastern
Honduras before dissipating into Tue. High pressure building north
of the area in the wake of the front will support strong trade
winds across the south central Caribbean through the period,
pulsing to gale force off Colombia at night beginning tonight and
continuing through mid week. Another cold front may approach the
Yucatan Channel by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda near 32N65W to east-central Cuba
near 21N77W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection is along and within 60 nm ahead of the front, north of
25N and east of 71W. Strong to locally near gale force NW winds
are between the front and the east coast of Florida, north of 22N.
A 1025 mb high is near 31N47W. A cold front extends from 32N28W
to 24N32W to 20N40W to 18N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 60 nm behind and 150 nm ahead of the front, mainly north of
19N and east of 39W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are within 270
nm ahead of the front north of 27N. Fresh to strong N winds are
within 300 nm behind the front.

The cold front extending from Bermuda to eastern Cuba will move
southeast and reach from 31N59W to the Windward Passage late
today, then will move across the waters near the Dominican
Republic tonight into Mon. Gale force winds are expected on either
side of the front north of 29N today. Winds and seas will subside
through mid week as high pressure following the front moves
eastward along 29N. Another cold front will approach from Florida
towards the end of next week. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
expected ahead of the front, mainly over the waters north of the
Bahamas.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net