[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 31N35W to 22N50W to 22N57W to 25N65W moving
E. Gale force NW-N winds are within 26N35W TO 24N40W TO 22N54W TO
31N42W TO 31N35W TO 26N35W. Seas are 10-14 ft. The gale is
forecast to end tonight on 02/0600 UTC.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is forecast to be over the W Atlantic tonight on
02/0600 UTC from 31N72W to 27N75W to the E coast of Florida near
23N79W. Gale force SW winds are expected ahead of the front
WITHIN 29N65W TO 29N73W TO 30N72W TO 31N70W TO 31N63W TO 29N65W.
Seas will be 8-12 ft. The gale will continue eastward with the
front and end Mon on 03/1200 UTC.

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The N coast of Colombia presently has near gale force winds. Gale
force winds are forecast for Sun evening on 03/0000 UTC WITHIN
11N74W TO 11N76W TO 12N75W TO 12N74W TO 11N74W. Seas will be 8-10
ft. The gale is forecast to then end Mon on 03/1200 UTC.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 01N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from
03N-03S between 19W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Marco Island Florida
near 26N82W to beyond the W tip of Cuba near 22N84.5W. Radar shows
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the front. Strong
NW to N winds are behind the front. Broken to overcast clouds and
isolated showers cover most of the S Gulf, S of 25N.

The cold front will shift SE of the basin tonight. High pressure
will follow the front from west to east across the Gulf through
Mon, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast
mid week. Expect fresh to strong southerly return flow ahead of
the next cold front Mon through Tue. The front will reach from the
Florida Big Bend to SW Gulf early Thu, pushing SE of the basin by
the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from W Cuba near 22N84.5W to S Belize near
16N88.5W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
front. Strong N winds are behind the front. 10-30 kt tradewinds
are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds along the SE coast
of Cuba. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along
70W. Very strong subsidence is over the entire area.

The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to eastern
Honduras by late Sun, then stall and weaken from Haiti through
Grand Cayman Mon before dissipating into Tue. High pressure
building north of the area in the wake of the front will support
strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean through the
period, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia Sun night. Looking
ahead, gales are possible off Colombia Tue night into Wed as the
high pressure shifts eastward to the north of the region. Another
cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel by the end of the
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Vero Beach
Florida near 28N80W. Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm
E of the front to include the N Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is over
the central Atlantic near 32N55W. Further E, a cold front enters
the E Atlantic near 31N35W to 22N50W to 22N57W to 25N65W, moving
E. Scattered moderate convection is N of 23N between 30W- 37W.

The W Atlantic cold front will move southeast and reach from near
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba by early Sun, then
will weaken from near 22N60W to near Puerto Rico early next week.
Winds and seas will subside through mid week as high pressure
following the front moves east along 29N. Another cold front will
approach from Florida towards the end of next week.

$$
Formosa
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