[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011643
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1143 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1620 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front is along 31N37W to 26N46W to 23N53W. Gale force NW-N
winds are forecast to develop after 01/1500 UTC within 90 nm NW of
the front, mainly east of 43W and north of 25N. The gales and
front will move east of 35W tonight by 02/0300 UTC. Expect wave
heights of 10 to 15 ft.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to the E coast of Florida near
29N81W. Gale force SW winds are expected to develop tonight ahead
of the front before 02/0600 UTC mainly north of 29N and east of
73W. Gales will then continue eastward with the front mainly north
of 27N between 52W-70W on Sunday, then north of 28N between 49W-
62W on Sunday night. Seas will increase Sunday to 12 to 18 ft in
the gale force wind area and behind the front.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
further details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
to 09N18W to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 02N28W to
02N37W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 00N-05N between 19W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to Campeche Mexico in the
western Yucatan Peninsula. Strong NW to N winds are behind the
front. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection
is ahead of the front from 22.5N-26N between 81W-86W, approaching
South Florida. Some of these thunderstorms contain strong wind
gusts and frequent lightning. Broken clouds and isolated showers
cover most of the Gulf behind the front, although skies are
clearing now in the NW Gulf off the Texas and Louisiana coasts.

The cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, and
move southeast of the Gulf through late today. High pressure will
follow the front from west to east across the Gulf through Mon,
ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast through
mid week. Expect fresh to strong southerly return flow ahead of
the next cold front Mon through Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to Campeche Mexico. Strong
thunderstorms are just north of the Yucatan Channel, mainly north
of 22N and east of 86W. Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. GOES-16 water vapor channels show
dry air across the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades
between 65W-78W, with strong trades offshore the northeast coast
of Colombia.

The cold front in the SE Gulf of Mexico will move through the
Yucatan Channel this afternoon, reach from the Windward Passage to
eastern Honduras by late Sun, then stall and weaken from Haiti
through Grand Cayman Mon before dissipating into Tue. High
pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will
support strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean
through the period, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia Sun
night. Looking ahead, gales are possible off Colombia Tue night
into Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward to the north of the
region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N77W to the E coast of Florida near
29N81W to Tampa Bay to Campeche Mexico. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the cold front. Isolated showers are elsewhere
within 240 nm of the front. Numerous moderate with embedded
scattered strong convection is approaching South Florida and the
Florida Keys from the west, from 22.5N-26N between 81W-86W. Some
of these thunderstorms contain strong wind gusts and frequent
lightning.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N35W to 23N52W to
24N61W. A warm front extends from 24N61W to 32N71W. Strong to near
gale N winds are within 300 nm N of the cold front, between 40W-
55W. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N34W to 26N39W. Strong to near
gale S winds are within 150 nm east of the trough. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 24N-32N between 29W-42W. This
convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence to the
east of the upper-level trough that is located between 40W-50W
north of 23N. Isolated showers are along and just NE of the warm
front, mainly north of 25N and west of 63W. A 1026 mb high is
north of the front near 33N59W.

The cold front extending from 31N77W to near Cape Canaveral
Florida will move southeast and reach from 31N67W to 21N76W by
late Sun morning, then from 31N57W to Haiti Sun evening. Winds
are expected to reach gale force ahead of the front E of 72W and
north of 27N tonight into Sun. Winds and seas will subside through
mid week as high pressure following the front moves east along
29N.

$$
Hagen
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