[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Dec 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...Special Features...

A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed night.
Gale force winds are expected behind the front. Seas will build
from 8-11 ft behind the front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of N Liberia near
07N12W to 07N14W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N30W to
the coast of N Brazil near 02N51W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ between
12W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between
38W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the basin centered near 30N90W.
Mostly fair weather is over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is over the western Bay of Campeche extending from
21N97W to 18N94W. Low level broken clouds are within 60 nm
of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds are over most of
the  basin, except for light to gentle east to southeast winds
over the NW Gulf waters and light to gentle west to northwest
winds over the NE Gulf waters.

High pressure prevails across the basin. Moderate to fresh
northerly flow will gradually shift E to SE today as high
pressure drifts eastward. Southerly flow returns into Wed before
the next strong cold front enters the basin and brings gale-force
winds into the NW and SW Gulf on Thu. Seas of 10-12 ft will
prevail in the vicinity of the front. High pressure will build
again in the wake of the front across the basin through the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fair weather dominates most of the Caribbean Sea. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate trades across most of the basin and fresh
winds prevailing over the south-central Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh easterly trades return across the basin with
highest winds and seas across the southern Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia. Northeasterly winds will pulse at nighttime
through the forecast period. The next cold front will slide
southward into the NW Caribbean by the end of the week enhancing
winds and seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N64W to the
central Bahamas near 23N75W where it becomes a dissipating cold
front to E Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 180
nm east of the cold front and north of 24N. A small surface
trough is over the central tropical Atlantic from 22N55W to
18N55W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis.
To the east, another frontal boundary is analyzed from 28N31W
to 31N26W. A prefrontal trough is from 27N30W to 30N26W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the cold
front. This boundary will dissipate within the next 24 hours.
Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The western Atlantic cold front will continue to push east
enhancing winds/seas. By the end of the week, the next cold
front will push off the northeast Florida coast with possible
near-gale winds across the west Atlantic and seas of 10-12 ft.
High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the
front through the weekend.

$$
CTM/MRF
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