[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220313 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 21 2020

Corrected surface analysis time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: The most recent scatterometer pass provided
observations of gale-force winds ahead of a cold front extending
31N75W to the Straits of Florida at 1800 UTC. Fresh to strong
winds were also noted on either side of the front N of 27N.
Gale force winds will continue in advance of the front through
this evening as the front moves quickly eastward reaching from
near Bermuda to eastern Cuba tonight. Seas as high as 12 ft are
expected within the area of gale force winds. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
08N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 05N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N-07N between 15W-40W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 40W and 46W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 21/1800 UTC, a cold front extends across the Straits of
Florida and the Yucatan Channel into the Yucatan peninsula.
patches of low level clouds are associated with the front.
Moderate N-NE winds are in the wake of the front but mainly over
the SE Gulf and in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds
prevail elsewhere under the influence of a 1023 mb high pressure
located over the coast of Louisiana. The high pressure will move
northeastward toward the Carolinas, allowing for southerly return
flow to dominate most of the Gulf waters on Wed.

The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Wed
evening followed by strong to gale-force winds and building seas.
Strong gale-force winds are expected first near Tampico by early
Thu morning, then near the Veracruz area early Thu afternoon.
Currently, marine guidance suggests N winds of 35-40 kt and
building seas of 12 or 13 ft. The front is forecast to exit the
Gulf by late Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As of 21/1800 UTC a cold front is moving southeastward through
western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are near
the front, forecast to extend from central Cuba to northern
Belize tonight, and gradually weaken from eastern Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras on Tue. Another and stronger cold front is
expected to reach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba by Thu
night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front,
forecast to reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by
Fri morning.

Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
are noted moving westward across the basin. Isolated to scattered
passing showers are possible with some of these clouds.

Latest scatterometer data revealed the presence of fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean and S of Haiti,
while moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the east
and central Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds are expected
near the coast of Colombia through Thu, with seas of 7-10 ft.
The trade wind flow will weaken toward the end of the week as a
strong cold front reaches the NW Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is now producing strong to gale force winds across
the western Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section
for more details. A band of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms is ahead of the front affecting mainly the waters N
of 27N between 65W-74W.

Farther east, a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N30W,
then continues SW to near 27N44W where it becomes stationary.
Pockets of low level moisture, with isolated showers, are near
the frontal boundary. Seas up to 12-13 ft in northerly swell are
noted behind the front, that will gradually weaken over the
forecast waters through late Tue. The pressure gradient between
a 1033 mb high pressure that follows the front and lower
pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh
trades N of the ITCZ to about 13N between 27W-44W based on
satellite- derived wind data. A ridge prevails over the far
eastern Atlantic.

$$
GR
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