[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 18 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to
04N32W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is near the
coast of Africa, north of 02N to 08N between 10W and 16W. North
of the ITCZ, a cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted
near the coast of Africa from 09N to 16N and E of 24W, and from
02N to 08N between 23W-37W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 22W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb high pressure centered over northern Tennessee near
36N84W. Anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the entire basin
with no significant convection noted. A surface trough extends
along the western Gulf from 24N97W to 18N94W. Area of stratus
clouds extends along the southern coast of Texas and Mexico W of
94W.

High pressure will prevail across the region through Sat. A cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Sat evening, reach the central
Gulf Coast to the Bay of Campeche on Sun, and from central
Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Mon, then exit the basin Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes from northern Cuba across the Yucatan
Channel to the northern part of the Yucatan peninsula. A few
showers are along the frontal boundary. The monsoon trough
extends northeast from the eastern Pacific Ocean into northern
Colombia. Zonal wind flow prevails across the basin. No
significant areas of organized convection are apparent from
satellite imagery.

A stationary front is draped south of the Yucatan Channel in the
NW Caribbean. This front is expected to linger into Sat before
it dissipates. High pressure north of the area will support
fresh NE trade winds across much of the area through Sun. Strong
trades will pulse at night north of Colombia through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 33N64W
across the northern Bahamas and NW Cuba near 22N79W, then it
transitions to a stationary front from Isla de la Juventud to
20N87W. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds and isolated
showers are within 60 to 120 nm on the southeast side of the
frontal boundary. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N66W to
21N71W, with isolated showers along the trough axis. A broad
ridge along 30N spans most of the east-central Atlantic,
anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 29N32W. North of the
ITCZ, a cluster of scattered moderate convection is noted near
the coast of Africa from 09N to 16N and E of 24W.

A cold front extending from 31N69W across the Bahamas to
northern Cuba will reach from 31N65W to central Cuba tonight.
Fresh to strong winds are expected N of 29N on either side of the
front today. The front will continue to push eastward across the
basin and weaken by Sun. Another cold front will move off the
Florida coast on Monday, reaching the southern Bahamas and
southern Cuba by Tuesday.

$$
MTorres

$$
Torres
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