[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The gales in the southwest Gulf of
Mexico ended at 15/0000 UTC, Monday evening at 6 PM CST. Winds
will continue to diminish over the Gulf this morning as high
pressure moves over the area. Another cold front will move into
the NW Gulf tonight and cross the basin by Thursday. Behind the
front, brief gales are expected offshore Veracruz on Wednesday.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of Africa
near 08N13W and continues to 05N20W. The ITCZ begins near 05N20W
and continues to 04N30W to 04N40W to the coast of N Brazil near
00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
00N-09N between 10W-23W, from 03N-06N between 24W-32W, and from
04N-08N between 34W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from Sarasota Florida to
26N84W. From there, a stationary front continues to 22N91W to the
coast of Mexico near 18N94W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends
from Naples Florida to 22N88W to the Yucatan Peninsula near
18N91W. Isolated showers are possible over the SE Gulf of Mexico
near the front and trough. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are seen inland over the southern Yucatan Peninsula along the
surface trough. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh N winds in the
Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf of Mexico. Fresh N winds are also
noted in the NE Gulf, north of 29N and east of 88W. Mainly
gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas in
the Bay of Campeche and far SW Gulf are forecast to subside to
about 6 ft by sunrise this morning.

Winds and seas will diminish this morning as the front stalls
and starts to dissipate from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight
and cross the basin by Thu, and will bring brief gales offshore
Veracruz Wed. Winds and seas will then diminish through Fri as
high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of the
second front. A third front will move into the northwest Gulf by
Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid to upper level ridge covers the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean, leading to subsidence, dry air and mainly fair weather
across the entire basin. Weakening high pressure north of the
area is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds across the
basin. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh trades confined to the
south-central Caribbean, south of the 15N between 70W-78W. Seas
of 2-4 ft prevail over the eastern and NW Caribbean, while 4-6
ft seas cover the area from the central to the SW basin.

High pressure north of the area will begin to re-strengthen by
Wed, and trade winds offshore of Colombia will begin to pulse to
strong each night, and then to near gale force Fri and Sat
nights. A weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the
Yucatan Channel and western Cuba Thu night through Fri before
dissipating. Strong high pressure north of the front will produce
fresh to strong NE trade winds across much of the area Fri and
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N76W to Daytona Beach Florida near
29N81W to Sarasota Florida. Isolated showers are possible near
the front. Fresh winds are noted on both sides of the front
north of 28.5N. A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high near
32N39W to 32N55W to 28N67W to the central Bahamas. Gentle
anticyclonic winds are within 180 nm either side of the ridge
axis. To the south of the ridge, a 1013 mb low is near 24N58W.
Fresh winds are on the north and east sides of the low. A surface
trough oriented SSW-NNE extends through the low from 19N to 27N.
An upper-level trough axis is over the same area. Upper-level
diffluence to the east of the upper trough axis is enhancing
scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from 18N-28N
between 48W-57W. In the NE Atlantic, a weakening stationary front
extends from 32N11W to 27N20W. Fresh N winds are within 120 nm
NW of the front. The latest ASCAT data shows fresh trades across
much of the area from 16N-27N between 50W and the coast of
Africa.

For the forecast, the cold front off NE Florida will sweep
eastward across the waters north of 27N through Wed. Meanwhile, a
deep layer trough will remain nearly stationary along 57/58W
through today before drifting westward and weakening tonight
through Thu. The next cold front will move into the waters east
of northern Florida Wed night then slide slowly SE and reach from
near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to W Cuba Fri morning, then
drift southeast of the area through late Sat. Behind the front,
expect fresh N winds across the western Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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