[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141742
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Dec 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological
analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a  strong cold
front extends from N Florida near 31N84W to the south central
Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N95W to
S  of Veracruz Mexico near 19N96W. Gale force winds are west of
the front and south of 29N. Seas are presently to 8 ft. The
front will continue to move SE over the Gulf today. Winds will
diminish to below gale force in the Gulf Tue. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ is from 05N20W to 02N40W to the
coast of N Brazil near  01S47W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-07N between
08W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ
from 02N-08N between 20N-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico with gale force
winds behind the front. See the Special Features section above.
A prefrontal trough extends from central Florida near Tampa to
the Bay of Campeche near 21N92W to S Mexico near 18N93W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the prefrontal
trough.

The cold front will cross much of the Gulf today, reaching SW
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche, then move slowly
southward tonight and Tue and across the far SE Gulf. Another
cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue night and cross the
basin by Thu. This front will bring brief gales offshore
Veracruz on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tradewinds are producing sparse areas of showers over the
Caribbean Sea  namely over the Leeward Islands , Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and the SW Caribbean W of 80W. A large upper level ridge
is over the Caribbean Sea with an axis along 80W. Upper level
subsidence is suppressing all deep convection.

ASCAT data reveal fresh trades over the central part of
the Caribbean between 68W-79W, with strong trades off the coast
of Colombia and NW Venezuela south of 13N between 70W-77W. Gentle
to moderate trades are elsewhere across the sea. Seas of 6-9 ft
are over the south-central Caribbean, while the rest of the basin
is averaging seas of 3-5 ft.

Winds are diminishing this morning over most of the basin as
high pressure weakens across the western Atlantic. By Wed,
high pressure will begin to re- strengthen to the north, and
strong nightly pulses will redevelop offshore of Colombia. A
weakening cold front will move slowly SE across the Yucatan
Channel and western Cuba Thu night through Fri. Strong high
pressure north of the front will produce fresh to strong NE
tradewinds across much of the area Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered showers are off the coast of N Florida N of 28N and W
of 78W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near
23N57W. A surface trough extends from 28N57W to the low to
19N59W. An upper level trough is above the surface low. Upper
level diffluence E of the upper level trough axis is producing
scattered moderate convection from 18N-30N between 48W-57W. A
1029 mb surface high is over the E Atlantic near 33N43W.
Elsewhere the tail end of a cold front is over the Canary
Islands from 31N15W to 27N23W. Scattered showers are within 60
nm of the front.

Strong S winds are ongoing N of 28N W of 77W this morning
ahead of a cold front that will move off the Florida coast Mon
evening. This front will drag across the waters north of 27N
through Wed. Meanwhile, a deep layer trough will remain nearly
stationary along about 57W-58W through Tue before drifting
westward and weakening Tue night through Thu. The next cold front
will move into the NW waters Wed night then slide slowly SE and
reach from near Bermuda through the NW Bahamas to W Cuba Fri
morning.

$$
MRF/ CTM
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