[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends
southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico from south-central
Louisiana near 30N91W to northeast Mexico near 24N98W. Recent
surface observations and a pair of recent ASCAT passes from
around 14/0300 UTC indicate that gale force NW to N winds cover a
sizeable area behind the front, off the Texas and western
Louisiana coasts. The gales will spread southward through the
western Gulf, affecting the waters off Tampico early this
morning, and offshore Veracruz by late morning. Winds will
diminish to below gale force in the NW Gulf by late this morning.
The gales will end in the southwest Gulf by late afternoon or
early evening. Seas as high as 12 ft are expected today over
portions of the western Gulf. Winds and seas will decrease Tue as
high pressure moves over the area. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 09N13W to 05N22W. The ITCZ is from 05N22W to 04N34W to
01N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N-07N between 08W-29N, and from 01N-09N between 29W-43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 14/0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends southwestward
across the Gulf of Mexico from south-central Louisiana near
30N91W to northeast Mexico near 24N98W. Gales are occurring over
the NW Gulf behind the front. Please see the Special Features
section above for details on the Gale Warning in the western
Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are seen within 60 nm of the
cold front. Strong S to SW winds are east of the cold front,
north of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds are over the southern
Gulf, to the east of the front.

As for the forecast, the cold front will cross much of the Gulf
today, then stall by tonight from central Florida to the Bay of
Campeche. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue night
and cross the basin by Thu. This front will bring brief gales
offshore Veracruz on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging covers the western Caribbean west of
70W. An upper-level trough axis extends from the Atlantic near
28N55W to the eastern Caribbean. GOES-16 water vapor channels
indicate that dry air covers nearly the entire basin. As a
result, there are no significant areas of precipitation noted.
The latest ASCAT data reveal fresh trades over the central
part of the Caribbean between 68W-79W, with some strong trades
off the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela south of 14N between
70W-77W. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere across the sea.
Seas of 6-9 ft are over the south-central Caribbean, while the
rest of the basin in averaging seas of 3-5 ft.

As for the forecast, strong NE to E winds will pulse early this
morning offshore N Colombia before high pressure weakens early
this week and winds and seas subside some. By the latter half of
the week, the high will re-strengthen to the north, and strong
nightly pulses will redevelop. A weakening cold front will move
slowly SE across the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface ridge extends WSW from a 1030 mb high near 35N49W
to Bermuda to about 29N75W. Over the central Atlantic, an upper-
level trough axis extends from 30N54W to the NE Caribbean. A
surface trough lies underneath the upper-level trough and extends
from 27N58W to a weak 1016 mb low near 21N58W to 16N59W. Upper-
level divergence southeast of this feature is helping to promote
scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from 10N-25N
between 46W-59W. A cold front is from 32N19W to 27N36W. A shear
line continues from 27N36W to 25N55W. Strong E winds are seen
north of the shear line to 30N between 43W-55W. Seas of 9-12 ft
are east of 50W and north of 25N due to an area of swell. This
swell is forecast to gradually shrink today into Tue as it
shifts to the south and southeast.

As for the forecast, a deep layer trough will remain nearly
stationary along about 57W/58W early this week. Strong S winds
will develop N of about 28N this morning ahead of a cold front
that will move off the Florida coast this evening. This front
will cross the northern portion of the forecast area into
mid-week. The next cold front will move into the waters east of
northern Florida Wed night then slide slowly SE through the
basin for the end of the week.

$$
Hagen
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