[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea and
Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from
05N23W to 03N27W to 06N37W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection noted in clusters from 02.5N to 09.5N between
16W and 35W, and from 05N to 08N between 37W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge extends from Florida to Honduras. Broad
upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic southwestward
across north Florida, to the central Gulf. Broken low and middle
level clouds cover portions of the Gulf this morning as moderate
southerly return flow prevails across the basin.

A cold front across Texas will reaches the NW Gulf of Mexico
coast later this morning and move into the NW Gulf waters later
today. The front will move northward, to the north of the area on
Sunday. Another cold front will move into the Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday night. By Monday, this front will reach from the Florida
Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche, with strong N winds spreading
southward behind the front. Minimal gale- force winds are expected
in parts of the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Monday
and Monday evening, across the Mexican waters from Tampico to
Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from the border of Colombia and
Panama, northwestward to the Yucatan Peninsula, spanning all of
Central America. Upper level NW wind moves across the open
waters of the Caribbean Sea, from Central America eastward,
gradually becoming more westerly wind flow crossing into the
eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to locally fresh tradewinds prevail across the Caribbean
east of 80W this morning, with strong winds within 120 nm of the
Colombian coast. The remnants of an old frontal boundary extend
from SW Haiti to the south of Jamaica. Gentle northeast winds
prevail west of 80W. Widely scattered showers dot the coastal
waters of eastern Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 07N/10N from 73W in N Colombia,
beyond Panama. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is
from 13N southward from 78W westward to the coasts of Central
America.

Strong NE winds will pulse nightly through Sunday along the
Colombian coast. Weak high pressure will dominate the basin from
Sunday through Wednesday, and produce below normal winds and
seas. A weakening cold front will move slowly across the Yucatan
Channel and western Cuba Thursday through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N46W to 24N55W. A shear line
then continues from 24N55W to 23N60W to 24N70W. Fresh NE winds
are within 300 nm to the north of the shear line between 54W and
70W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the stationary front and shear
line.

Broad and weak upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area
that is from 07N to 20N between 40W and 60W. A surface trough is
along 23N53W to 15N55W to 07N55W. Widely scattered moderate to
locally strong is within 270 nm to the east of the trough, and
within 180 nm to the west of the trough, from 12N to 20N.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 35N59W. Anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the north of the stationary
front/shear line. A 1028 mb high pressure center is east of the
frontal boundary near 33N25W. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 18N northward from the stationary front/shear
line eastward.

Active weather will continue today along the front and south of
the shearline to the coastal waters of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
before it weakens tonight. A high pressure ridge will dominate
the waters that are to the north of this front, bringing fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the NE waters, from tonight through
Saturday night. The ridge then will weaken considerably across the
area, from Sunday through Wednesday. A cold front will move off
the FL coast on Monday night. Strong SW winds will be ahead of the
front, mainly N of 28N.

$$
Stripling
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