[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112254
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone at
09N13W to 07N15W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that
it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W and to 05N42W. Scattered
moderate convection observed within 05N-08N between 23W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A few showers are active across the Texas coastal waters, ahead of
an approaching cold front currently moving through the Southern
Plains. These showers are being supported in part by moisture
delivered by fresh southerly flow over much of the northwest Gulf
of Mexico, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Broad, deep-layer ridging is
in place across the remainder of the basin anchored by 1022 mb
high pressure over central Florida. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated moderate to fresh SE flow and 4 to 6 ft
seas in the Bay of Campeche, between the ridge and lower pressure
over eastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE breezes and 2 to 4 ft
seas persist elsewhere across the Gulf, with generally fair
weather.

For the forecast: The high pressure over central Florida will
shift northeast tonight, as southerly winds increase across
across the western Gulf in advance of the approaching cold front.
This weak front will move into the NW Gulf Sat then lift back N
of the area Sun. Another cold front will move into the Gulf Sun
night, and will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Bay of
Campeche, with strong winds in its wake. Gales are forecast over
portions of the western and southwestern Gulf Mon and Mon evening
offshore Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper trough reaches from the western Atlantic over the
southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, to just north of Jamaica. This
is supporting a few showers from Grand Cayman Island to Jamaica.
Farther east, isolated showers are noted over the Windward
Islands, in moderate easterly trade flow. Earlier scatterometer
satellite data indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds off
Colombia, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere over the
central Caribbean. Seas are estimated to be 6 to 9 ft off
Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere over the eastern and
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are evident
over the northwest Caribbean, with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse nightly into Mon
along the Colombian coast. Weak high pressure will dominate the
basin well into next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening and stalling frontal boundary extends from 32N43W to
eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are active along the boundary off the north coast of Hispaniola,
ahead of a mid to upper level trough just to the west. A few
showers are also noted along the front from 25N to 28N between 48W
and 52W. 1027 mb high pressure is centered north of Bermuda.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted within 120 nm along the front
south of 27N, gentle to moderate east winds evident west of the
front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in open waters east of 70W, 5 to 7 ft
between 60W and 70W north of 20N, and 7 to 9 ft elsewhere west of
the front. For the forecast for waters west of 65W, the front will
dissipate through tonight. The high pressure will dominate waters
north of this front, bringing fresh to strong NE to E winds
across NE waters tonight through Sat night. A cold front will move
off the Florida coast Mon night, with some strong SW winds ahead
of the front, mainly north of 28N.

Elsewhere farther east, 1027 mb high pressure is centered over the
eastern Atlantic between the Canary and Azores Islands is
supporting fresh to strong NE winds off the coast of Morocco, and
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere east of 50W, with 6 to 9 ft
seas in a broad mix of swell. Gentle to moderate trades and 5 to 7
ft seas east of the Windward and Leeward Islands to 50W due to a
surface trough along 53W from 10N to 22N.

$$
Christensen
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