[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 04N30W to
03N43W. Scattered to numerous strong is from 05.5N to 09N between
11W and 16.5W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 03.5N to 07.5N
between 22W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge resides over NE Mexico and the western half
of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level NW wind flow and stable sinking
air covers the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1025 mb high pressure center
that is near 36N73W, through 32N78W, across northern Florida, into
the Gulf of Mexico, to near 24N91W. A surface trough extends
along the Mexican coast from near Cabo Rojo to near Veracruz.
Fresh to locally strong southerly winds prevail across the western
Gulf west of 94W, from near Veracruz to the central Texas coast.
Seas are currently 4 to 6 ft across this area.

High pressure extending into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will
shift northeastward through Friday, allowing fresh to locally
strong southerly winds to expand across the western Gulf of
Mexico. A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat and then
stall Sat night and lift northward and inland Sun. A strong cold
front will move into the NW Gulf Sun night, and reach from the
Florida Panhandle to southern Mexico Mon morning. Strong northerly
winds are expected behind the front with strong to possible gale-
force winds along the western Gulf coast near the Veracruz area on
Mon, and seas building 8-12 ft.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic southwestward
through central Hispaniola to near 15N81W. High pressure across
the NW Atlantic and north of the front is producing fresh to
strong NE winds through the Windward Passage and fresh NE winds in
the lee of Cuba. Southwest of the frontal remnants, fresh
northerly flow prevails across the coastal waters within 120 nm of
the coast of Nicaragua, where seas are 6-7 ft. Strong NE winds
prevail within 150 nm of the coast of Colombia between 73W and
78W. Moderate easterly trades prevail elsewhere across the
Caribbean east of 70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and
isolated moderate showers are seen across the Windward Passage
and within 210 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

The stationary front will continue to weaken through morning and
become ill defined today. Fresh northerly winds across the
Nicaragua coastal waters will continue to diminish through Friday
with seas subsiding. Fresh to strong NE winds will pulse
each night offshore of the coast of Colombia through Sunday.
Weakening high pressure across the western Atlantic Mon and Tue
will induce a considerable diminishing of winds and seas area
wide.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front across the central Atlantic separates two broad
surface ridges across the basin. The front passes through 32N52W
to 25N60W to 20N68W and across central Hispaniola. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 90 nm SE of the front between
56W an 66W, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 240 nm SE of the front to the north of 24N. Deep layered
low pressure centered near 23N45W is supporting scattered
moderate convection from 18N to 24N between 42W and 48W.
Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge is centered on a 1030 mb high
near 33N25W, while a ridge west of the front is centered on a 1025
mb high near 36N73W.

A reinforcing and weak cold front will sink into the waters
between 55W and 70W prior to sunrise and gradually overtake and
merge with the stationary front Friday night through Sat along
26N-27N between 48W and 65W. This will produce a strong pressure
gradient along and north of the front to yield strong NE to E
winds. NW swell moving through the area waters E of 70W will
maintain seas of 8 ft and higher across the waters north of 25N
and east of 65W through Sat. Another cold front will move east of
northern Florida late on Mon, with fresh to strong SW winds
developing across the western Atlc ahead of the front.

$$
Stripling
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