[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2240 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal areas of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from
04N20W to 02N24W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 01S-03N between 05W-15W, and from
03N-07N between 14W-31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong subsidence and dry conditions are in place over the Gulf.
At the surface, a 1022 mb high pressure center is located near
25N88W, with associated broad surface anticyclonic wind flow
spanning the entire Gulf. Earlier ASCAT data from late Thursday
morning showed moderate S return flow over the western Gulf, west
of 94W and south of 28N. That ASCAT pass also indicated light to
gentle anticyclonic flow prevailing elsewhere across the Gulf.

As for the forecast, the high pressure in the eastern Gulf will
shift eastward through Fri. Southerly winds will increase in the
western Gulf tonight and Fri. A strong cold front will move into
the NW Gulf Sun night, then extend from the Florida Panhandle to
southern Mexico early Mon. Strong northerly winds are expected
behind the front with possible gales along the western Gulf
coast near the coast of Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front stretches from central portions of
the Dominican Republic to south of the Haitian peninsula near
17N74W. Scattered showers are possible within 120 nm either side
of the front, including most of Hispaniola. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is over Panama and over the waters
south of 11N between 80W-82W in association with the east
Pacific monsoon trough. Patches of low-level clouds advecting
westward, with possible isolated showers, are noted north of 15N
between 62W-82W.

Earlier ASCAT data from late Thursday morning showed strong N
winds within 150 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, with fresh N winds
covering much of the remainder of the western Caribbean, but the
winds decrease to gentle in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh NE to E
winds are in the south-central Caribbean, with locally strong
winds near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere.

As for the forecast, the weakening stationary front will
dissipate this evening. Fresh northerly winds near the coast of
Nicaragua will gradually diminish into early Fri. Fresh to strong
NE winds will pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia through
Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N53W to 24N61W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to the central part of the
Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is along and
within 90 nm east and southeast of the front north of 21N and
east of 65W. The front will become stationary and weaken
tonight. A second cold front that currently extends from Bermuda
to 31N70W will make its way south tonight into Fri increasing NE
winds this weekend with high pressure building eastward across
the forecast area. A third cold front will move east of northern
Florida on Monday returning fresh to strong SW winds in the
western Atlantic.

Farther east, an upper-level low is near 22N46W. At the surface,
a trough is from 20N47W to 12N49W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 13N-26N between 39W-48W. The upper-level low is forecast
to lift northward and weaken to an upper trough through Fri.
Surface ridging spreads across the remainder of the eastern
Atlantic, anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N28W.

Seas of 9 to 12 ft are expected this weekend east of 60W and
north of 24N as a large low pressure system moves eastward over
the north Atlantic, to the north of the area.

$$
Hagen
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