[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010957
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system centered a couple
of hundred miles northwest of the Madeira Islands continues to
produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms well to the
east of the center. This low has changed little in organization
over the last 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected
to be only marginally conducive for it to acquire subtropical
characteristics over the next day or so as it drifts
southwestward. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for further development. Regardless of subtropical
development, this system will continue to produce strong winds
and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through Tuesday.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by Meteo France. Their website is:
www.meteofrance.com /previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
10N13W to 06N31W. The ITCZ continues from 06N31W to 06N40W to the
coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03N-12N between 14W-32W, and from 05N-09N between 37W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Gale force winds have diminished to strong for Gulf waters
adjacent to Veracruz and in the Bay of Campeche. Winds and seas
will decrease further today as high pressure builds into the area.
The cold front that was responsible for the gale conditions has
moved SE of the area, taking association convection with it out of
the basin. The only remaining precipitation in the Gulf is cold
air advection induced showers over the Bay of Campeche.

A 1028 mb high pressure is centered just S of Brownsville, Texas
near 24N97W. This high pressure center will move E and gradually
lift N toward the northern Gulf coast today.

High pressure will quickly cross the region tonight, with strong
SE return flow setting up Wed in the NW Gulf, ahead of a cold
front that will enter the Gulf Wed night. By Thu night, this front
will be from the Florida Panhandle into the Bay of Campeche, with
gale conditions likely redeveloping off Veracruz and continuing
through Fri. The cold front will move SE of the Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from western Cuba near 22N80W to Guatemala
near 16N89W. Scattered moderate convection is located along and
within 90 nm N and W of the boundary. Farther S, to the north of
the eastward extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough,
numerous strong thunderstorms exist from 09N to 15N between 75W
and 84W, offshore the coasts of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.
Elsewhere across the basin, generally moderate to fresh trades
prevail, and scattered moderate convection has developed just S of
Hispaniola.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
through the week. A cold front over the NW Caribbean this morning
will reach eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then
stall and gradually dissipate. Fresh to strong winds and building
seas can be expected in the wake of this front through Wed night.
Looking ahead, another front may enter the Yucatan Channel by late
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
pressure in the far eastern Atlantic NW of the Madeira Islands.

A cold front stretches from near 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and
western Cuba near 22N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
located within 60 nm both sides of the front. Over the central
Atlantic, a surface trough extends from a low pressure center NE
of Bermuda to 31N50W to 22N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is located east of this trough, N of 22N
between 42W and 50W.

The western Atlantic will reach a Bermuda to central Cuba line by
Wed morning, then weaken and drift SE into late week. Strong NW
and higher seas can be expected in the wake of this front, mainly
N of 27N and W of 70W through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold
front will move off the coast of northeast Florida Sat.

$$
KONARIK
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