[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure is expected to form off the Georgia coast tonight
or Monday. Subsequent development is possible, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while
the system moves northeastward to off Cape Hatteras, and then
east-northeastward, away from land. There is a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please see the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov for more information.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends from 06N-20N with axis
along 62W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis
from 11.5N-16.5N. Rains over the Windward and southern Leeward
Islands will diminish later this afternoon as the tropical wave
moves west of the area into the eastern Caribbean. These showers
and tstorms are beginning to show signs of organization. A recent
ASCAT pass indicates that a broad low pressure has formed in
association with the wave. A tropical depression could form
during the next couple of days as the system moves W across the
Caribbean Sea. The system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development,
this system will produce gusty winds along with scattered to
numerous showers and tstorms as it moves W.  Interests in Jamaica,
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress
of this disturbance.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N-17N with axis along 20W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm W and 180 nm E of the wave axis from 10N-14N.
Additional showers are seen from 04N-09N between 14W-23W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N-17N with axis along 30W, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are near and
within 270 nm W of the wave axis from 08N-15N. Further
development is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves
slowly west, and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next 5 days.

A tropical wave extends from 05N-18N with axis along 43/44W,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 330
nm W and 75 nm E of the wave axis from 06.5N-15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 13N32W to 12N40W. The
ITCZ begins near 13N46W and continues to 13N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is south of the ITCZ from 07N-13N between
54W-58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough axis currently extends from western South
Carolina to the NW Gulf of Mexico. The latest TPW imagery shows
moist conditions over the northern Gulf of Mexico on the east
side of the upper trough axis. As a result of the moisture,
instability, and sea breeze convergence, scattered to numerous
moderate showers and thunderstorms are near the U.S. northern
Gulf Coast from 27N-31N between 82W-94W. Most of this activity
is north of 28.5N. Elsewhere, a surface ridge axis extends from
the W Atlantic into the SE Gulf along 24N, leading to fair
weather and gentle anticyclonic winds.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days, with a high pressure center forming over the southeast
Gulf by Mon. The ridge will lift north through mid week,
supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western
Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is described
above in the special features section. In the far SW Caribbean,
the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered showers
south of 12.5N between 75W-83W. Elsewhere, subsidence and dry
air cover the remainder of the basin. A recent ASCAT pass shows
moderate trades across the central and W Caribbean, although
light to gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Fresh
trades are in the western Gulf of Honduras.

A strong tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will move
across the entire basin through mid week. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rain will accompany the wave. The wave has a
medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours. A surface trough will move through the
Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean Mon and Tue. High
pressure north of the area will support fresh winds over the
Gulf of Honduras through Mon night, and off Colombia into
early Mon. Moderate trade winds will persist elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is occurring north of
the NW Bahamas and well east of Florida, from 27N-34N between
68W-78W, related to upper level diffluent flow east of an
approaching upper-level trough over the SE U.S. Fresh SW to W
winds are noted north of 29.5N between 65W-82W, including in the
offshore waters off northeast Florida. These winds will persist
through much of today ahead of a trough moving off the Georgia
coast. Even though low pressure is expected to form in
association with the trough tonight or Monday north of the area,
winds south of 31N will diminish overnight as the trough or low
moves NE. The low has a medium chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone within 48 hours.

Farther south, a ridge axis extends from the southern tip of
Florida near 25N80W to 25N70W to 30N55W to a 1025 mb high near
34N40W. Gentle anticyclonic winds are within a couple hundred nm
either side of the ridge axis. A westward moving surface trough
is along 54W from 18N-26N. Isolated showers accompany the trough.
As the trough moves westward across the waters south of 25N
through mid week, the ridge axis will lift north. Elsewhere,
fresh trades cover much of the Atlantic from 18N-28N, east of
55W. Strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands northward
over the far NE Atlantic, east of 18W.

$$
Hagen
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