[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292347
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo France has issued a gale warning for
Agadir, off the coast of Morocco, valid now through 30/0000 UTC.
See http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N- 18N with axis near 16W, moving
W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from
05N to 13N E of 22W.

A tropical wave extends from 06N to 18N with axis near 27W, moving
W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N
between 23W and 31W. This system is expected to move very slowly
for the next several days, and some development is possible early
next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic.

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis near 43W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection and isolated
tstms are from 07N to 13N between 41W and 51W.

A tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands extending from 06N
to 18N with axis near 57W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 11N to 17N between
54W and 62W. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while it moves westward towards the
Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, this system will
likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 19N with axis
near 84W, moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no convection associated
with this wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 14N26W to 13N46W. The
ITCZ begins near 13N46W and continues to 13N53W. For information
about convection, see the Tropical Waves section above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Microwave satellite imagery continuue to show the advection of
very moist air from the E Pacific and the Caribbean into the Gulf
of Mexico, which along upper level diffluence to the east of a
trough base, continue to fuel showers and tstms over the north-
central and northeast basin. Fresh to strong SW winds are in this
region as well, however are expected to decrease tonight as a
pre-frontal trough moves east of the area.

Otherwise, a ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the
north central Gulf will persist through the middle of next week
supporting moderate to fresh return flow over the western half of
the basin. A weak trough will move from the Yucatan peninsula
across the SW Gulf followed with moderate to locally fresh E to SE
winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated tstms are over the portions of the
SW Caribbean associated with the eastern extension of the Pacific
monsoon trough that reaches NW Venezuela. Similar shower activity
is over the Windward Islands as a tropical wave approaches from
the east.

Fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean
through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia at night. Fresh to strong winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night in the wake of
a tropical wave moving through that area this evening. A second
tropical will move across the Lesser Antilles on Sun producing
heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Then, will affect the eastern
Caribbean Sun night into Mon. A third tropical wave will approach
the Lesser Antilles on Mon, moving across the eastern Caribbean
late Mon into Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Middle level diffluent flow continue to support scattered showers
and isolated tstms over the offshore waters N and NE of the
Bahamas. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence
of the Bermuda and Azores high, which is supporting fair weather
conditions.

The ridge extending along roughly 25N will persist across the
western Atlantic into early next week. A frontal trough will move
off the southeastern U.S. coast tonight, then stall and weaken N
of 28N early on Mon before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh
SW winds are expected ahead of the trough over the waters N of
30N. The northern extent of a tropical wave, currently located
along 43W, will reach the waters E of 65W by Sun night, crossing
65W by Mon night. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds will
follow this system.

$$
Ramos
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