[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2306 UTC Fri Aug 28 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean west of the
Cabo Verde Islands, with axis near 31W from 07N-23N. It is
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. An associated northern vorticity
center north of 15N and along 32-33W is moving faster than the
rest of the wave axis and providing a NW to SE tilt. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between
28-40W. Although conditions are not favorable for development
over the next couple of days, there is a medium chance of
tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days.

A strong tropical wave axis is over the central Atlantic near
48W from 06N-16N is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is noted from 07N-15N between 48W-55W. Some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves westward at
about 15 kt toward the Lesser Antilles and it has a low chance
of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days.

A tropical wave axis is over the Caribbean near 81W from 05N-22N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring
from 10N-13N between 80W-84W.

A tropical wave reaches along roughly 96W from the central Bay
of Campeche into the eastern Pacific. Scattered moderate
convection is seen over the Gulf of Mexico from 19N-22W between
90W-93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania at 20N16W
to 13N33W to 06N51W at the coast of Suriname. The east Pacific
Ocean monsoon trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia near 09N75W to 11N84W over Nicaragua then to
the eastern Pacific. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical waves noted earlier, scattered convection exists
from 05N-11N east of 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Laura was located over Kentucky near 37.2N
88.9W at 2100 UTC, moving ENE or 77 degrees at 21 mph. See the
latest advisory issued on Laura by the Weather Prediction Center.

A ridge extends westward along roughly 25N from 1019 mb high
pressure near 26N66W toward the coast of Texas. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly flow is evident between the ridge and the
northern portion of the tropical wave moving across the
southwest Gulf. Fresh SSE flow spreading from the Yucatan Channel
into the south central Gulf is producing low level convergence
and scattered moderate convection from 24N-28W between 90W and
the W coast of FL. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across most of the Gulf.

Moderate to fresh southerly flow will persist over the central
and western Gulf through tonight, increasing to fresh to strong
over the north-central and northeast basin Sat as a surface
trough develops tightening the pressure against the ridge.
Moderate to fresh southerly flow will resume for the western half
of the Gulf Sun and prevail through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwest
to the east Caribbean and is producing stable atmospheric
conditions east of 70W. The interactions between the tropical
wave near 81W and the ridge to the north of the Caribbean are
modulating the trade wind flow over the basin. Fresh SE winds are
noted ahead of the tropical wave from the Gulf of Honduras
across the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades are noted
between 68W and 80W supported by the tropical wave. Seas are 4 to
6 ft over most of the basin, with up to 8 ft in south central
Caribbean. Convection described above is active off eastern
Panama close to the monsoon trough.

Fresh trade winds will prevail over the central Caribbean
through Sun, with locally strong winds expected to pulse near the
coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Fresh
to strong winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras through
Sun night. A tropical wave over near 81W will move across the
western Caribbean through Sat night. A second tropical wave is
expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on Sat, followed by a
third tropical wave likely reaching the eastern Caribbean on Mon.
Fresh to strong winds associated with the third tropical wave
will affect the waters NE of Puerto Rico Sun night and Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 26N66W and extends a weak
broad ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A 1024 mb
high pressure is just southwest of the Azores near 35N30W with a
ridge reaching southwestward through 30N45W. Moderate to fresh
tradewinds are seen across the Atlantic generally south of
21-22N. Stable Saharan Air generally dominates the tropical
Atlantic north of 14N to the Lesser Antilles.

The high pressure ridge extending along roughly 25N will persist
across the western Atlantic into early next week. A cold front
will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Sat night, then
stall and weaken N of 28N early on Mon before dissipating.
Moderate to locally fresh SW winds may precede the front this
weekend over the waters N of 30N. Otherwise, a tropical wave will
support moderate to fresh winds over the waters N of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola Mon night through Wed.

$$
Landsea
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