[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251758
TWDAT

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Laura at 25/1500 UTC is near 23.7N
87.0W, or 508 nm southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana moving WNW

at 14 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 knots.
Satellite imagery shows that Laura is quickly becoming better
organized as evident by a CDO feature that has developed over the
center and large banding features in the SE semicircle of Laura.
Numerous strong convection is near the center from 22N-25N
between 85W-87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 19N-25N between 84W-89W. A WNW
motion should continue today. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico today. Laura is then forecast to move over the central
and northwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, approach
the Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night
and move inland near those area on Thursday. Significant
strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Laura is
expected to be a major hurricane at landfall. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml,
for more details.

A tight surface pressure gradient over the Canary Islands
supports gale-force winds over the Canary Islands regional
waters. The Meteo-France forecast consists of a gale warning
in the area of CANARIAS. Please refer to the Meteo-France High
Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2, for more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W from
02N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is from 04N-10N between 22W-30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W from
02N to 18N, moving westward at about 17 kt. This wave remains
within a rather dry and stable environment. Only scattered
showers are within 60 nm of the axis from 07N to 09N.

A trough is analyzed from near 24N66W to the E tip of Hispaniola
near 18N68W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm W of the trough
axis.

The northern portion of an eastern Pacific tropical wave along
88W extends northward to El Salvador and W Honduras, while the
eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from El Salvador
east-southeastward across central Nicaragua and continues to
NW Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms that were over
S Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the northernmost coastal
sections of Mauritania to 11N30W to 09N45W. The ITCZ extends
from 08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves, only scattered
moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 07N-10N
between 13W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see Special features section above for details on
Hurricane Laura.

Outside of Laura, the post-tropical/remnant low of Marco is near
29N92W with a pressure of 1010 mb and moving westward at 7 kt.
The low is losing its identity with time and will soon transition
to a trough as it continues westward for the next 24 hours.
Scattered showers are near the low. Elsewhere, a surface trough
is producing scattered moderate convection near Tampico Mexico
from 18N-24N between 95W-98W.

Hurricane Laura is centered north of the Yucatan Channel near
23.7N 87.0W at 1500 UTC moving W-NW or 290 deg at 14 kt.
Maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Laura will
continue to gradually intensify as it reaches near 24.6N  89.2W
early tonight, reaches near 26.0N 91.5W Wed morning with maximum
sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, and continue over the NW
Gulf to near 28.0N 93.3W early Wed night with maximum sustained
winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. Laura is then expected to move more
northward and inland late Wed night through early Thu morning and
reach near 30.5N 93.9W Thu morning. Laura will then weaken
quickly as it moves northward and well inland Thu and Thu night.
Expect long-period swell from Laura to impact most of the basin
through Thu. Atlantic high pressure will build westward over the
eastern Gulf in the wake of Laura.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection due to Hurricane
Laura is over the Yucatan Channel N of 19N. See above.

A tropical wave has moved inland over Central America with axis
along 88W. See above.

A 1008 mb low is centered over N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 13N between
75W-84W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough extends north-northeast from an upper low
that is over the central Caribbean to near 25N70W. The northern
section of an eastern Caribbean Sea trough extends to near
24N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are quickly moving
westward south of 24N between 65W-73W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 27N and 78W.

A surface trough is N of Hispaniola. See above. Elsewhere, the
tail-end of a central Atlantic cold front reaches to near 30N59W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 30N east
of the front to near 50W. This activity is moving ESE. A 1021 mb
high center is over the E Atlantic near 31N34W. Broad high
pressure ridging is N of 23N.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure north of the area will
gradually shift southward through the rest of this week
and into Sat. Fresh to strong southeast winds E of the Lesser
Antilles will diminish to mainly moderate speeds on Tue.

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net