[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
202 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm LAURA, at 25/0300 UTC, is near
22.7N 84.0W. LAURA is about 70 nm/130 km to the NE of the
western tip of Cuba. LAURA is moving WNW, or 290 degrees, 17
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65
knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 250
nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for
more details.

The center of Tropical Depression MARCO, at 25/0300 UTC, is near
29.0N 89.8W. MARCO is about 39 nm/70 km to the W of the mouth of
the Mississippi River. MARCO is moving W, or 270 degrees, 8
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is
concentrated within 70 nm of the center in the N quadrant.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

The surface pressure gradient, that exists between a 1026 mb
high pressure center that is about 1100 nm to the WNW of the
Canary Islands, and lower pressures that are in W Africa,
supports gale-force winds near the Canary Islands and the
regional waters. The Meteo-France forecast consists of a gale
warning in the area of CANARIAS. Please refer to the
Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/m
etarea2, for more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W/24W from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 03N to
08N between 25W and 35W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 08N between 44W and
45W.

A surface trough is along 23N61W 16N61W 09N62W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 150 nm on either side of the surface
trough.

A tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 16N southward, moving W
10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave is passing through the eastern
sections of Honduras, central Nicaragua, and the NW corner of
Costa Rica, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The
monsoon trough is along 11N73W in NE Colombia, to 11N80W, to
central Nicaragua, through southern Honduras, and southern El
Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 45 nm on either side of
the line 11N71W 09N73W 08N75W 06N78W, in Colombia. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 02N to 15N between
73W and 85W, that includes: the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
the coastal waters of Panama and Colombia in the eastern Pacific
Ocean, and any other inland areas.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northernmost coastal
sections of Mauritania, to 18N20W, 13N30W 11N40W and 10N47W. The
ITCZ is along 10N between 47W and 61W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 07N to 10N from 28W eastward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 04N to 14N between 35W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers parts
of the Gulf of Mexico, within 475 nm to the NNW of T.S. LAURA.

Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
clusters covers the area from 23N southward from 95W westward.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 29N southward from 93W
westward.

Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 335 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough, in Central America and Mexico between 87W and 98W.

Tropical Storm Laura center near 22.7N 84.0W 996 mb at 11 PM EDT
is moving WNW at 17 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
gusts 60 kt. Laura will move into the SE Gulf of Mexico to near
23.7N 86.3W Tue morning, with maximum sustained winds 60 kt
gusts 75 kt. LAURA will intensify to a hurricane in the central
Gulf of Mexico near 25.2N 89.1W on Tuesday evening, with maximum
sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Laura will continue to
intensify as it reaches near 26.8N 91.6W late Wed morning, with
maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. LAURA will continue
into the NW Gulf to near 28.8N 93.0W Wed evening, with maximum
sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. LAURA will move inland to
near 31.3N 93.6W early Thu. Laura will weaken to a tropical
storm near 33.8N 93.0 Thu evening, and to a depression while
moving inland near 36.7N 89.1W late on Friday.

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Marco center is near
29.0N 89.8W 1007 mb at 11 PM EDT is moving W at 8 kt. The
maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. Marco will become a
remnant low and move to near 29.3N 91.3W Tue morning, then to
near 29.6N 93.3W Tue evening and dissipate Wed morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 740 nm to
the east of T.S. Laura. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 12N to
28N between 60W and 80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean
in the areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 16N southward, moving W
10 to 15 knots. The tropical wave is passing through the eastern
sections of Honduras, central Nicaragua, and the NW corner of
Costa Rica, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The
monsoon trough is along 11N73W in NE Colombia, to 11N80W, to
central Nicaragua, through southern Honduras, and southern El
Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 45 nm on either side of
the line 11N71W 09N73W 08N75W 06N78W, in Colombia. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 02N to 15N between
73W and 85W, that includes: the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
the coastal waters of Panama and Colombia in the eastern Pacific
Ocean, and any other inland areas.

Tropical Storm Laura center near 22.7N 84.0W 996 mb at 11 PM EDT
is moving WNW at 17 kt. The maximum sustained winds are 55 kt
gusts 60 kt. Laura will move into the SE Gulf of Mexico to near
23.7N 86.3W on Tuesday morning, with maximum sustained winds 60
kt gusts 75 kt. LAURA will intensify to a hurricane in the
central Gulf of Mexico near 25.2N 89.1W Tue evening, with
maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Laura will continue
to intensify while moving across the NW Gulf of Mexico through
Wed. Atlantic Ocean high pressure gradually will shift southward
through the next few days. This will lead to an increase of
trade winds in the central and northeast sections of the
Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is about 740 nm to
the east of T.S. Laura. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
parts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 12N to
28N between 60W and 80W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean
in the areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward.

The center of Tropical Storm Laura is along the northern coast
of western Cuba. LAURA will move into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico this morning. High pressure just north of the area will
shift southward, gradually, through the rest of this week and
into Saturday. Fresh to strong southeast winds, in the southwest
part of the area, will diminish to mainly moderate speeds on
Tuesday.

$$
mt
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