[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Laura is centered near 19.4N 74.3W or about 50 nm
S of the E tip of Cuba at 23/1800 UTC. Laura is moving WNW at
18 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Recent ASCAT
passes from between 23/1300 UTC to 23/1400 UTC indicate that
tropical storm force winds are occurring both north of Hispaniola
and south of Haiti from 17N-22N between 70.5W-74W. Numerous
moderate scattered strong convection extends out 120 nm in the NE
quadrant, 210 nm SE quad, 180 nm SW quad and 60 nm NW quad. Laura
is forecast to move near or over Cuba tonight and Mon, and over
the SE Gulf of Mexico Mon night and Tue. Laura is expected to
move over the central and NW Gulf Tue night and Wed. Very heavy
rain over Hispaniola and Cuba could lead to life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides through Monday. Swells generated by
Laura are affecting portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
and Hispaniola. These swells are expected to spread across Cuba,
much of the Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next few
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Hurricane Marco is centered near 25.3N 87.4W or about 245 nm SSE
of the mouth of the Mississippi River at 23/1800 UTC. Marco is
moving NNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992
mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen within
120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 60 nm SE quad, 75 nm SW
quad and 105 nm NW quad. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center in the east
semicircle. The center of Marco will approach SE Louisiana early
Monday. Peak seas as high as 29 feet are expected near the center
of Marco in the Gulf of Mexico. A Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi,
including Lake Borgne. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from
02N-22N, moving W at 15 kt. A rather dry and stable environment
surrounds this wave. Isolated showers are near the wave axis
from 16N-18N and from 05N-11N.

A short-amplitude Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along
72/73W south of 14N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers and
tstorms are near and within 90 nm east of the wave axis.

The western Caribbean tropical wave that was analyzed along
79/80W at 23/0600 UTC has dissipated and has been removed from
the analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 18N21W to 11N30W to 10N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N42W to 10N62W. The ITCZ and monsoon trough are
devoid of any significant showers and tstorms at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Marco is currently over the central Gulf of Mexico.
It is forecast to make landfall in SE Louisiana Monday afternoon.
Expect winds to hurricane force and peak seas to 29 feet through
Mon afternoon near the path of Marco in the Gulf of Mexico.
After landfall, Marco is forecast to turn to the WNW and slow
down. Therefore, tropical storm force winds should continue
through Tuesday morning for the NW Gulf waters near the coast of
Louisiana. Please see the Special Features section above for
additional details on Hurricane Marco.

Outside of Tropical Storm Marco, fresh E to SE winds cover the
Florida Straits and the eastern Gulf. The SW Gulf is currently
experiencing gentle wind speeds. Moderate NE winds are in the NW
Gulf.

Tropical Storm Laura, currently centered just west of Haiti,
will move WNW near or over Cuba, then enter the southeast Gulf
of Mexico Monday evening. Laura is forecast to strengthen to a
hurricane Tue evening in the central Gulf near 25N89W, then turn
NNW toward Louisiana or the upper Texas coast. Laura could
potentially strengthen to a category 2 hurricane over the NW
Gulf with winds near 85 kt and gusts to 105 kt. Landfall is
forecast to occur late Wed or early Thu along the coast of
Louisiana or Texas. Expect improving conditions over the NW Gulf
of Mexico late Thu into early Fri. See the Special Features
section above for additional information on Laura.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tropical Storm Laura will spread tropical storm force winds and
heavy
squalls across the waters near Hispaniola, the Windward Passage,
Jamaica, Cuba and the Yucatan Channel, through Monday evening,
as it
moves WNW from the Windward Passage to near Cuba to the SE Gulf
of
Mexico. Except seas up near 8 to 10 ft over the northern
Caribbean
near the path of Laura. See the Special Features section above
for
more on Laura.

Hurricane Marco is now over the central Gulf of Mexico and is no
longer affecting the Caribbean basin. However, fresh S winds are
still over the Yucatan Channel.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the SW
Caribbean associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough. The
latest ASCAT pass shows gentle winds in the SW Caribbean and
moderate winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds should gradually
decrease tonight in the eastern Caribbean as Laura progresses
farther west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Laura is centered just west of Haiti and just
south of the Windward Passage. The latest ASCAT pass from this
morning shows that winds in excess of 25 kt associated with
Laura are occurring from 17N-26N between 67W-76W. Significant
convection associated with Laura is occurring south of 22N
between 68W-75W. Laura is forecast to spread tropical storm
force winds and squalls over the waters north of the Windward
Passage and Cuba as it moves WNW through late Monday. Seas of
12-18 ft are expected on the Atlantic Ocean side of Cuba.
Strong winds and dangerous seas are also likely across portions
of the Bahamas. High pressure will build westward across the area
in the wake of Laura. See the Special Features section above for
more on Laura.

Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 31N71W.
An upper-level disturbance is inducing scattered showers and
tstorms from 20N-30N between 55W-62W. A westward moving surface
trough is analyzed from 26N49W to 17N51W. Isolated showers and
tstorms are near the trough from 19N-25N.

$$
Hagen
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