[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Laura is centered near 17.1N 61.2W at 21/2100 UTC
or 30 nm E of Antigua moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40
kt with gusts to 50 kt. A poorly-defined convective band is evident
over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Another band of
moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 180 nm to
the SE of the center. There is little or no deep convection near
the estimated center. A generally west-northwestward motion at a
faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands later today, near or over Puerto
Rico Saturday morning, and near the northern coast of Hispaniola
late Saturday and early Sunday. Laura is expected to produce 3 to
6 inches of rain over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the
Dominican Republic, the southern Haitian Peninsula and eastern
Cuba through Sunday. Maximum amounts up to 8 inches are possible
along eastern portions and the southern slopes of Puerto Rico, as
well as over Haiti, the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba.
This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, as
well as an increased potential for mudslides with minor river
flooding in Puerto Rico.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for
more details.

Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered near 17.7N 84.3W at
21/2100 UTC or 220 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving NW at 11 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Convection is now
developing just N of the center. The strongest and most
persistent convection is located within a band that extends
across the Cayman Islands toward the Isle of Youth and western
Cuba. A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next
couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will
approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on
Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf
of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The
system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening
is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central
Gulf of Mexico.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is approaching Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis is
along 21N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 12N-17N E of 22N to the coast of W Africa. This system
is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the Cabo
Verde Islands during the next 24 hours. Conditions are forecast
to be only marginally conducive for some development over the
next couple of days. After that time, environmental conditions
are expected to become less favorable for development. Regardless
of development this system will likely bring gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
this weekend. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Another tropical wave is over the central Caribbean, with axis
along 70W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave appears to support
scattered moderate to strong convection over western Venezuela,
and is helping to induce some convection over Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near
15N16W to 09N30W to 07N43W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to the
coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Besides the convection mentioned
in the tropical wave section, a cluster of moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 07N-09N between 26W-29W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Laura and Tropical Depression Fourteen.

An upper-level trough extending from SE Louisiana to near
Tampico, Mexico supports a stationary front that extends from
Mobile, Alabama across SE Louisiana to central Texas. A band of
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over the eastern
Gulf ahead of the trough. This convective activity is also
affecting the Yucatan peninsula and the State of Florida. Gentle
winds prevail across most of the basin, based on scatterometer
data. Seas are 3 ft or less across the offshore forecast waters.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Laura and Tropical Depression Fourteen.

Scatterometer data shows moderate trade winds over the central
Caribbean, with locally fresh winds near the coast of Colombia
and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere outside of T.D. Fourteen,
gentle to moderate winds prevail across the basin.

Most of the convective activity across the area is related to the
tropical systems, and a tropical wave along 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical
Storm Laura.

A 1020 mb high pressure centered over the central Atlantic near
30N52W extends a ridge westward toward the Bahamas and Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is E of Florida and N of the NW
Bahamas in association with the aforementioned upper-level
trough. scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted N
of 28N between 51W and 54W on the west side of an upper-level
low.

A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N20W, and
continues SW to near 25N32W. A broken band of mainly low clouds
is associated with the front.

$$
GR
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