[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
101 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 16.0N 52.0W at
20/1500 UTC or 750 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands moving
WNW at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection stretches from
180 nm in the NW quadrant and 160 nm in the southern semicircle.
Additional scattered moderate convection is seen 260 nm south of
the center between 51W to 53W. Seas are up to 10 ft near the
center. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move
near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and
near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml
for more details.


Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered near 15.1N 79.7W at
20/1500 UTC or 235 nm E of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Nicaragua
and Honduras border Moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection noted 300
nm in the northern semicircle and scattered moderate in the SE
quadrant. On the forecast track, the center of the system will
move near or just north of the northeastern coast of Honduras and
the Bay Islands on Friday and will approach the east coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then
expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move
into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPATA.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml
for more details.


A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms near the Africa coast. This wave is
expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Fri,
and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it
moves west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 04N-12N
between 16W-20W along the African coast south of Guinea- Besau.
ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong southerly winds from 05N- 10N
between 14W-20W. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 46W from 19N
southward and is moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection has developed in association with this wave from 06N
to 09N between 42W and 45W. Convection east of the wave is mainly
Associated to TD. Fourteen.

A tropical wave has entered the Caribbean with its axis along 62W
from 20N southward and is moving westward 15-20 kt knots.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the northern
Lesser Antilles but drier air in the vicinity is limiting
convection south of 15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 18N16W to 08N37W. The ITCZ begins near 13N54W to 09N60W. In
addition to the convection associated with systems described above
in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough
between 19W-25W and scattered moderate from 09N-12N between 53W-
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure to near
Galveston, Texas, with a weak surface trough extending in the
northern Gulf from 28N88W to 24N92W. Broad ascent over the
northeast Gulf is leading to scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection N of 23N and E of 91W. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and seas of less than 2 ft prevail.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
this evening. Thirteen is forecast to move over portion of the
Greater Antilles this weekend. This could bring storm surge,
heavy rainfall and wind impacts over portions of Hispaniola, Cuba
and the Bahama. Thirteen could strengthen to a hurricane near
24.0N 78.6W by early Mon.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen and move into the
south-central Gulf as a Tropical Storm. Fourteen will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 92.0W by early Mon.
Expect tropical-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of
Nicaragua, the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

See above discussion in Special Features for T.D. Fourteen over
the Caribbean.

South of T.D. Fourteen, moderate to fresh winds are noted south
of Hispaniola in the Central Caribbean while for the portions of
the eastern and western Caribbean sea gentle to moderate trades
are occurring. Scattered convection is confined to areas along the
Pacific monsoonal trough, within about 180 nm of the Panama
coast. Seas range 3-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the low in the
central Caribbean.

Tropical Depression Fourteen will strengthen and move into the
south-central Gulf as a Tropical Storm. Fourteen will change
little in intensity as it moves to near 25.0N 92.0W by early Mon.
Expect tropical-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of
Nicaragua, the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See above discussion in Special Features regarding Tropical
Depression Thirteen.

A weakening cold front is sagging south over the east-central
Atlantic, from 31N22W to 27N31W to 29N42W. No convection is
occurring with this front. To the west, high pressure of 1021 mb
centered near 29N52W continues to dominate much of the basin.

Fresh southerly winds are occurring in the Atlantic from 29N
ahead of a trough north of the area. Otherwise, light to gentle
winds prevail.

Tropical Depression Thirteen will strengthen to a tropical storm
this evening. Thirteen is forecast to move over portion of the
Greater Antilles this weekend. This could bring storm surge,
heavy rainfall and wind impacts over portions of Hispaniola, Cuba
and the Bahama. Thirteen could strengthen to a hurricane near
24.0N 78.6W by early Mon.

$$
MTorres
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net