[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 191740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today in
association with a tropical wave currently located over the central
Caribbean Sea.  Some gradual development of this system is possible
over next day or so while it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea.  After that time, the wave is
forecast to move more slowly west-northwestward, and a tropical
depression is likely to form later this week when the system
reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An elongated area of low pressure, located about 1000 miles east of
the Windward Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of
showers and thunderstorms. Although recent satellite-derived wind
data indicates that the low is not well-defined, environmental
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the next day or two while the
system moves generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.  Interests
in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and
Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern
Atlantic on Friday.  By early next week, however, conditions are
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto
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