[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180012 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM Mon Aug 17 2020

Corrected Caribbean Sea section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W
from 03N to 21N, moving westward at 16 kt. It is located about
610 nm west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This wave has
become better defined in the presentation of its associated
convection and in its cloud pattern since 24 hours ago. The wave
is moving through a very moist surrounding environment. The
convection observed with the wave is of the scattered moderate
to strong type within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 09N to
12N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in band
type formation is within 30 nm of a line from 12N31W to 13N34W
and to 12N36W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of
08N34W and 30 nm of 09N32W. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within a couple days while the system moves
westward to west- northwestward across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 02N to 21N, moving
westward at about 15 kt. This wave is moving through a very
moist surrounding environment. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is within 180 nm west of the wave axis from 10N
to 12N. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm west
of the wave axis from 07N to 10N and east of the wave axis
within 30 nm of 08N24W. This wave is forecast to approach
the Special Features tropical wave during the next couple
of days.

A tropical is approaching the Windward Islands, with its axis
along 60W south of 21N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt.
Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to
strong convection from just along the coast of Venezuela near
11N, northward covering just about all of the Windward Islands.
The convection extends westward to near 65W and eastward to the
waters east of the Windward Islands for about 240 nm. Some
observational sites in the Windward Islands recently reported
wind gust to 25 kt as well as during the afternoon. This wave is
expected to continue to move quickly westward over the eastern
and central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which
is likely to limit significant development. After that time,
however, the system is expected to move more slowly westward
across the western Caribbean, where upper-level winds could
become more conducive for the development of a tropical
depression during the latter part of this week. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected
over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands
through Tue morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania,
Africa near 20N16W southwestward to 12N25W and continues westward
to 12N35W and to 12N52W. The ITCZ is presently not defined.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described
above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of
the trough between 43W-48W and within 60 nm north of the trough
between 47W-49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough stretches from the southeastern U.S.
southwestward to 29N89W and southeastward to near the western
tip of Cuba. As of 21Z, a stationary front extends from near
Mobile, Alabama to 28N92W and to near Corpus Christi, Texas.
Ample moisture across the area is allowing for isolated
showers and thunderstorms to exist south of 25N west of
90W and within 30 nm of a line from 23N90W to 25N86W and
to near Tampa, Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are inland Mexico from Tuxpan to 25N. Moderate to fresh winds
are west of the front per latest buoy observations and a partial
ASCAT pass. Light winds remain across the remainder of the
basin.

As for the forecast, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate through mid-week. Elsewhere high pressure centered
east of the area will extend over the eastern and southern Gulf,
leading to light winds and slight seas. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong winds are possible over the south central Gulf ahead of
low pressure approaching the region from the northwest Caribbean.

CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

See Tropical Waves section above for details on the tropical wave
that will be entering the eastern Caribbean tonight.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of
13N to inland Colombia and between 74W-77W and from 11N to 13N
between 65W -69W. Similar activity is over the Gulf of Honduras.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea north of 17N and west of 80W.

A rather light gradient over the area is maintaining moderate
to fresh trade winds over the south central Caribbean. Moderate
trade winds continue over the eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle
trades prevail elsewhere.

As for the forecast, generally moderate trades will prevail
through much of the basin into late week. A strong and fast
moving tropical wave will move across the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands tonight, then move across the eastern and central
Caribbean Tue and Wed, bringing squally conditions, gusty winds,
and potentially heavy rainfall. There is a low chance of
tropical development from this wave over the eastern Caribbean,
but a medium chance when it slows over the western Caribbean late
week. Looking ahead, another tropical wave and low pressure
system may approach the Atlantic waters off the Leeward Islands
by late Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Tropical Waves section above for details on a couple of far
eastern tropical waves.

A nearly stationary front just offshore the southeastern U.S.
while an upper-level trough is progressing eastward across the
southeastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north
of 29N and west of 68W, while scattered showers and thunderstorms
are north of the area between 68W-74W. The remnant trough of
former Tropical Storm Josephine extends from near 30N64W to
24N70W and to 22N69W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm east of the trough axis from 23N to
27N. Farther east, a broad deep-layer ridge roughly parallels
30N with a surface center of 1019 mb near 29N54W and another one
of 1020 mb just north of the area near 33N22W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are along and to within 80 nm of the coast of
Cuba between 75W-78W. Similar convection is over the interior of
the northeast part of Haiti and the northwest part of the
Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong winds accompany the tropical
wave near 607W. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity of
the surface ridge. Gentle to moderate winds are present elsewhere
north of 20N as were indicated by the latest ASCAT pass there
and by buoy observations.

As for the forecast, high pressure centered over the central
Atlantic will control the weather pattern this week, bringing
gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds to the area. Looking
ahead, low pressure may form along a tropical wave now over the
central tropical Atlantic, bringing strong winds, building seas
and squally weather to the Atlantic waters north of the Leeward
Islands by Sat.

$$
Aguirre
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