[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 171733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands is producing a
large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  This
disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is expected to
continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to
limit significant development.  After that time, however, the
system is expected to move more slowly westward across the western
Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for
the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of
this week.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is forecast to
interact with another disturbance located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next day or two. This
interaction is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of
low pressure, and conditions are forecast to be conducive for the
development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter
part of this week while the system moves westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western
portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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